Philadelphia Phillies: Starting pitchers for sale
While the Phillies negotiate with a free-agent bat, some competitors for that slugging infielder also believe they must secure a top-tier rotation arm, but general manager Matt Klentak will probably have a financial edge.
Second choices:
For the Philadelphia Phillies, they have the dollars to also add a top left-handed starter to slot between Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. However, the other hurlers behind them did improve, but the execs might want those three to compete for the bottom two spots.
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Considering solid starters, many franchises will have interest, rumored or active. But the difference in the annual price range between free-agent arms and bats is $10 million to $18 million for the top starters and $30 million to $40 million for the best hitters.
On the other hand, some organizations bidding on Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper are also considering the moundsmen atop the market to strengthen their five-man staffs. But while the red pinstripes can acquire one of each, other clubs might decide between one or the other. A toss-up?
As for the starters, the Phils will probably have considerable interest because the top three are portsiders. But although the pipeline has two left-handed prospects with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, one needs more seasoning, and the other won’t require roster protection until after next season.
Beginning at the top, Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros is a solid two-slot hurler, and the team has the payroll space to re-sign the lefty. But will they? Meantime, Patrick Corbin is available, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly at their financial limit.
One level down, southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Los Angeles Dodgers is a solid mid-rotation arm when he’s healthy. And right-hander Trevor Cahill of the Oakland A’s is another possibility after going 7-4 for 110 innings with a 3.76 ERA over 20 starts. Unfortunately, many others are roughly 35 years of age.
Regarding the hometown nine, they aren’t signing aging studs like Cole Hamels. No, if they pick up a free agent for the starting staff, they will ink a younger portsider.
Competitive balance:
While clubs are bidding on Machado and/or Harper, they will also make offers to the top moundsmen for their rotation. But some teams may opt for the pitching instead of those prized bats. In other words, if they add an $18 million hurler to a $35 million hitter, can they increase annual payroll by $53 million?
Like the Phillies, the Atlanta Braves have many young arms competing for jobs. But it still will take 2-3 summers for them to make an impact in the major leagues. So, Atlanta must decide if it wants to pursue Harper or a veteran starter to replace Sanchez. Sound similar?
With Los Angeles (NL) losing Ryu and possibly not extending Clayton Kershaw due to a gradual velocity drop on his four-seam fastball to 90.9 mph since 2008, they could prefer signing a solid hurler for 4-5 campaigns instead. Realistically, they might have a greater need for a pitcher.
As for the Chicago Cubs, they must sort through their starters including Hamels and are unlikely to ink another. Additionally, Kris Bryant will be a free agent in three seasons, but they’ll want him to re-up in a year’s time. And they might not want to annually pay the increases on the Luxury Tax.
While the New York Yankees have reset their base tax rate for this offseason’s free agents, the starting staff is their first concern, not third base defense: Corbin is their target. And they may not care to exceed the competitive-balance threshold by $50 million per annum: Signing two may be too much.
Yes, shortstop Didi Gregorius will have TJ surgery, but position players have a shorter rehab time. In fact, he may only miss 2-3 months of ’19, and Machado’s $300 million to $400 million isn’t a short-term answer. Usually, GMs don’t make a move like that.
Even though the Milwaukee Brewers need a shortstop, they basically have an American League lineup. But their offense may not be able to completely carry their rotation. And while Nelson will return from right shoulder inflammation, expect them to pursue a starter more heavily than they did last July.
Southpaw options:
With the need for a left-handed starter, many fans will point to Cole Irvin‘s numbers with Lehigh Valley. However, the Phillies won’t prematurely burn a 40-man spot when the hurler doesn’t require protection until after the 2019 campaign. Why wait? Most players don’t make an impact until or after their third year..
As for Ranger Suarez, he is on the 40-man roster and received three 2018 starts. Auditions! Klentak had to protect him last winter from the Rule-5 Draft. Besides, the red pinstripes have three developing arms ahead of their Triple-A challengers.
Keuchel, 30, received a national publication estimate of $18 million each for four summers. For the record, he has had three sub-3.00 ERA seasons out of five since his first two 162s and produced a 3.74 ERA in ’18. And he relies on an 89-90 mph sinker with a slider, cutter, changeup and four-seam fastball.
Targeted by the Yankees, Corbin had a solid 2018 going 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA and even better ERA estimators. He depends on both a sinker and a four-seam fastball at 92.1 mph with a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. As for his estimated price tag, it’s $16 million for each of five campaigns.
Corbin had his best 162 after pedestrian results in 2016 and 2017. So, was he having a career year in his fifth season, or is he something else? A late bloomer?
Having the same six pitches as Corbin, Ryu, 31, finesses the opposition and had solid results for 15 outings: 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA for 82 1/3 frames. He has a 3.20 ERA for 96 career starts: 19 games per 162. Dollar-wise, he made $7 million in 2018 and could get $10 million each for 2-3 summers. But can he stay healthy?
Last winter, Klentak signed Santana ($20 million) and Arrieta ($25 million) for $45 million AAV (average annual value). But if the exec inks Machado ($35 million AAV) and Keuchel ($22 million AAV) for 10 and three years respectively, the decision-maker would add $57 million AAV. One of each, again?
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Pitching stats:
- Keuchel, 30.6: 34 Gms., 204 2/3 Inn., 12-11, a 3.74 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.84 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.6 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
- Corbin, 29: 33 Gms., 200 Inn., 11-7, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 2.61 xFIP, a 2.91 SIERA, a 6.3 fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.
- Ryu, 31.5: 15 Gms., 82 1/3 Inn., 7-3, a 1.97 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, a 3.11 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
- Kershaw, 30.5: 26 Gms., 161 1/3 Inn., 9-5, a 2.73 ERA, a 3.19 FIP, a 3.19 xFIP, a 3.45 SIERA, a 3.5 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
Phillies pitching stats:
Irvin, 24.5:
- Triple-A: 26 Gms. (1 relief), 161 1/3 Inn., 14-4, a 2.57 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.56 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP.
Suarez, 23:
- Phillies: 4 Gms. (1 relief), 15 Inn., 1-1, a 5.40 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.66 xFIP, a 4.74 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.80 WHIP.
- AAA: 9 Gms., 49 1/3 Inn., 2-0, a 2.74 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 4.16 xFIP and a 1.28 WHIP.
- AA: 12 Gms., 75 Inn., 4-3, a 2.76 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.
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