San Francisco Giants Rumors: Five potential Bay-bound trade options
The San Francisco Giants failed to reach the postseason in consecutive seasons for the first time since their ’04-’09 playoff drought. As the organization has a recent history of postseason success, this offseason presents an opportunity to retool for another deep run in October next season.
The San Francisco Giants finished the 2018 regular season 18.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West division. After back-to-back seasons of not reaching the postseason, the Giants decided to remove Bobby Evans as the general manager.
Although the Giants have not yet hired a replacement general manager, the organization hired Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi to be their president of baseball operations. Zaidi has previous experience working under Billy Beane with the Oakland Athletics while also having previous general manager experience under Andrew Friedman in Los Angeles.
As Zaidi has worked in two front offices that focus on analytics when evaluating players, he should be able to give the Giants a large advantage while they deal with improving an expensive, aging roster. With Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, and Mark Melancon combining to earn roughly $111 million in both 2019 and 2020, an analytical approach will help the front office as they search for valuable players at a lower cost.
Despite a high payroll, the Giants batters only combined for a 7.2 WAR. According to FanGraphs, this ranked the team 29th in the MLB with the Baltimore Orioles holding the lowest WAR at 2.7. On the other side of the field, the Giants pitchers combined for a 12.2 WAR (21st in the MLB) while the fielders combined for a -17.1 UZR (23rd in the MLB).
Even though there are a lot of free agents that could help fix the current roster issues for the Giants, it may be more financially beneficial for the team to explore the trade market instead. Due to this, let’s take a look at five possible trade options that could find their way to the Bay Area prior to the 2019 season.
During the 2018 season, the Giants finished 25th in the MLB with a 0.1 WAR from the second base position. Although the team could hope for a bounce back year from their current option, there are available options in the trade market.
Last season Joe Panik played 101 games at second base and 1 game at first base. During these games, he put together a .254 batting average (AVG), a .307 on-base percentage (OBP), and a .332 slugging percentage (SLG). Out of players with at least 250 ABs for the Giants in 2018, Panik had the lowest on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) at .639.
After three straight seasons from 2015-2017 in which Panik put together 8+ home runs and 21+ doubles, he was only able to compile 4 home runs and 14 doubles in 2018. Despite missing most of July with a left groin strain, this was not an adequate amount of production from second base.
Even though the Kansas City Royals kept Whit Merrifield through the 2018 trade deadline and have recently indicated an unwillingness to trade him, general manager Dayton Moore is still likely to listen to any offers for the OPS machine as they look to retool instead of rebuild.
Last season, Merrifield played 158 games for the Royals in which he put together a .304 AVG, a .367 OBP, and a .438 SLG. To help obtain these numbers, he had an impressive 192 hits with 58 of those hits turning into extra bases. Merrifield also compiled 88 runs, 60 runs batted in, and 45 stolen bases in 55 attempts.
Javier Baez was the only primary second baseman to finish the 2018 season with a higher WAR than Merrifield. Baez compiled a 5.3 WAR while Merrifield compiled a 5.2 WAR. This number shows how valuable Merrifield could be for the Giants as the Chicago Cubs relied heavily on the production of Baez last season.
Even though Merrifield is 29-years-old, he is under team control through 2023, which would help the Giants out payroll-wise while they wait for a few high contracts to come to an end. The Royals will definitely be looking for a large return for Merrifield, however, if the Giants are able to put together the right offer, he could very well end up in San Francisco before next season.
The New York Yankees are currently looking to trade a starting pitcher that is very familiar with the Bay Area. Although his former team is looking to trade him, he has the capability of performing at a very high level next season.
Sonny Gray currently has one year of team control remaining and the New York Yankees are ready to move him out of their rotation prior to the 2019 season. As players often perform at their highest level prior to reaching free agency, Gray could be a phenomenal addition for the Giants.
Gray compiled an 11-9 record in 30 games (23 starts) for the Yankees last season. Through 130.1 innings pitched, he put together a 4.90 ERA, a 4.17 FIP, and a 1.496 WHIP. All of these numbers were well above his career averages in these categories (3.66 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.247 WHIP).
However, as he performed very well outside of the Bronx last season, he will be an attractive trade chip for Yankees general manager Brian Cashman. For example, in 15 games pitched on the road, Gray held a 3.17 ERA and a 1.155 WHIP. In 15 games pitched at Yankees Stadium, Gray held a 6.98 ERA and a 1.904 WHIP.
As his road numbers were closer to his career averages than his awful home numbers were, Gray could be a perfect rotation upgrade for the Giants. If the Giants are able to find an upgrade at second base (such as the aforementioned Merrifield), Panik could also be an intriguing piece to send out in order to acquire Gray.
With Didi Gregorius recently undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Yankees will be in search of a middle infield replacement in order to give him ample time to recover. Acquiring Panik for second base would allow the Yankees to move Gleyber Torres to his natural position of shortstop while Gregorius is out of action.
Similar to Gray, Panik could benefit from a change of scenery as he also looks to bounce back from a forgettable 2018 performance. As Panik provided very little production for the Giants last season, it would be worth the risk of swapping him for Gray in order to improve the rotation.
A return to the rotation in 2019 seems unlikely for Cueto after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August, so the Giants should be aggressive in an attempt to obtain Gray from the Yankees. Even though Gray is entering his final season of team control, he is only projected to receive $6.6 million in salary arbitration, which could help the Giants with payroll flexibility in order to make further upgrades to the roster.
The Giants outfielders only combined for a 0.1 WAR during the 2018 regular season. The Orioles outfielders combined for the same WAR total and the Chicago White Sox were the only team beneath them with a -1.2 outfield WAR.
For most of 2018, Hunter Pence, Gorkys Hernandez, and Andrew McCutchen were the primary outfielders. Alen Hanson, Austin Slater, Gregor Blanco, Austin Jackson, Steven Duggar, and Mac Williamson also saw a considerable amount of time in the Giants outfield as well.
Even though McCutchen was moved to the Yankees before the end of last season, he and Pence are now free agents. This leaves the Giants with only one primary outfielder under team control for the 2019 season in Hernandez.
However, as Hernandez only put together a .234 AVG, .285 OBP, and a .391 SLG through 142 games, the team desperately needs an upgrade to its outfield. After missing out on acquiring Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and/or Marcell Ozuna from the Miami Marlins last offseason, they need to make sure to capitalize on outfield trade opportunities this offseason.
As Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto is known to be very active in trade talks, he may be extra active this offseason with the organization looking to retool their roster. This could very well open the door for the Giants to acquire a power hitting outfielder that made his first All-Star team in 2018.
Through 157 games last season, Mitch Haniger compiled 26 home runs, 38 doubles, and 4 triples. This led to a slash line of .285/.366/.493 alongside 93 runs batted in and 90 runs scored. As Haniger put together a 4.6 WAR alone, the Giants should aggressively pursue the right-handed slugger.
The Mariners recently traded another 20 home run hitter in Mike Zunino alongside Michael Plassmeyer and Guillermo Heredia to the Tampa Bay Rays for Mallex Smith and Jake Fraley. This trade could serve as a benchmark for what the Giants may need to offer in order to pry Haniger away from Seattle and bring him to the Bay Area ahead of the 2019 season.
Even though the Giants would benefit from contacting the Mariners about an outfield upgrade, they would also benefit from contacting the M’s about an upgrade to their starting rotation.
James Paxton followed up his breakout 2017 season with another solid performance last season. In 2018, he went 11-6 with a 3.76 ERA, a 3.23 FIP, and a 1.098 WHIP through 160.1 innings pitched.
Although this was a slight drop off from his 2.98 ERA, 2.61 FIP, and 1.103 WHIP in 2017, he is a top of the rotation arm with three years of team control remaining. As Madison Bumgarner is entering the final season of his contract, the Giants would benefit from obtaining a controllable All-Star caliber starting pitcher.
Last season, Paxton had 15 quality starts through his 28 games pitched. During these starts, he compiled 7 double-digit strikeout performances and put together 208 strikeouts overall. Paxton also threw two complete games and reached the 7th inning on 11 occasions.
Even though Cueto is owed $65.49 million over the next three seasons (with a $5 million buyout in 2022) and Samardzija is owed $39.6 million over the next two seasons, the Giants should still be able to handle the likely expensive arbitration years that remain ahead for Paxton.
A rotation featuring Madison Bumgarner, James Paxton, and Dereck Rodriguez could help the Giants return to the postseason next season. As the Dodgers and Rockies will be very tough to compete with once again in 2019, the Giants will likely be very aggressive on the trade market for starting pitching.
If they are willing to part with top prospects, Paxton could possibly find his way to San Francisco during the offseason. Depending on the prospects they would be willing to send to Seattle, they could potentially get the Mariners to take on part of a contract for Samardzija or Melancon as well.
As there will be a lot of competition for the top outfielders available on the open market this offseason, the Giants need to look at every possible option on the trade market to upgrade their outfield.
Even though Shin-Soo Choo is owed $21.0 million in both 2019 and 2020, he is still an extremely productive player. During 2018, Choo reached his first ever All-Star team when he put together 52 extra base hits through 146 games played.
Throughout these games, he also walked 92 times which contributed towards his .377 OBP. During last season, he also put together a .264 AVG and a .434 SLG. His .810 OPS was higher than any everyday player on the Giants last season.
Although many may have written off Choo’s ability as the Texas Rangers have not been competitive in recent years, he has put up an impressive .260/.363/.424 slash line throughout his first five seasons in Texas.
Choo has also performed very well in his limited appearances against the Dodgers, Rockies, and Padres. He holds a slash line of .241/.380/.310 in 18 games against the Dodgers, a slash line of .303/.394/.472 in 26 games against the Rockies, and a slash line of .232/.357/.341 in 23 games against the Padres.
As the Rangers are in the middle of a rebuild in a tough American League West division, the Giants could look to acquire Choo. The Giants already have roughly $140 million committed next season before roughly $18 million worth of arbitration salaries are factored into the payroll.
However, if the Giants are willing to include a prospect such as Alexander Canario or a combination of prospects out of Abiatal Avelino, Jake Wong, Ryan Howard, and C.J. Hinojosa, they could potentially get the Rangers to cover some of Choo’s remaining salary. Depending on the offer of prospects, the Giants could also potentially do a salary swap by sending out either Jeff Samardzija or Mark Melancon in a trade for Choo.
Next. Could Machado and Harper be South Side bound?. dark
Recap of the possible trade options for the San Francisco Giants this offseason:
1. Whit Merrifield of the Kansas City Royals
2. Sonny Gray of the New York Yankees
3. Mitch Haniger of the Seattle Mariners
4. James Paxton of the Seattle Mariners
5. Shin-Soo Choo of the Texas Rangers