Chicago Cubs Rumors: Seven possible free agent options this offseason
The Chicago Cubs will once again have their sights set on returning to the World Series next season despite back-to-back one-game playoff losses that brought last season to an abrupt ending.
The Chicago Cubs were able to reach the National League Championship Series from 2015-2017, but they had a much earlier exit in 2018. Even though they were still able to reach the playoffs for the 4th straight season, they missed out on two opportunities to advance to the NL Division Series.
The first opportunity came during the tie-breaking Game 163 when the Cubs took on the Milwaukee Brewers to determine the winner of the NL Central division. Although the game took place at Wrigley Field, the Brewers were victorious, which sent the Cubs to the NL Wild Card game.
The second opportunity came during the aforementioned NL Wild Card game against the Colorado Rockies to determine who moves on to the NLDS and who goes home. Although this game also took place in Chicago, the Rockies were able to capture the victory to abruptly end the Cubs postseason.
Even though the Cubs were defeated in each of these one-game playoff situations while scoring a combined two runs, there have since been reports that the organization is willing to listen to trade proposals for important offensive players such as Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. However, it is unlikely that Bryant or Rizzo will be moved this offseason as the team remains in win-now mode while both of these sluggers remain under team control.
Instead, it is more likely that the team will be aggressive in their attempts to add impact players through free agency. Although the team will most likely focus on offensive upgrades, there are also intriguing pitching options available this offseason. Regardless, the Cubs may not be able to spend freely due to their current salary commitments.
The Chicago Cubs set a new franchise payroll record as they almost touched the $200 million mark.
According to Spotrac, the Cubs put together a $195 million payroll last season. Their previous payroll record occurred during the 2016 season when they reached the $184 million mark. Although a franchise payroll record was worth it that season (as the organization captured a World Series championship for the first time since 1908), it was not worth it last season as the team fell short of preseason expectations.
Nonetheless, as the Cubs ranked third in the entire MLB by generating $2.9 billion in revenue, the fan base deserves a competitive team, regardless of the cost. Although the organization reached new payroll heights last season, they may need to increase the payroll even further if they plan on pursuing the top free agents on the market this offseason.
Looking ahead, the Cubs currently have $165.5 million committed to their roster for next season. After factoring in the estimated cost of arbitration raises, their payroll will roughly increase to $208.5 million, which will once again set a new franchise payroll record.
A large reason for why the payroll is approaching new heights is the cost of the starting rotation. Jon Lester is currently scheduled to earn $27.5 million next season, Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish are both scheduled to earn $20 million, Tyler Chatwood is scheduled to earn $12.5 million, Jose Quintana is scheduled to earn $10.5 million, and Kyle Hendricks is estimated to receive $7.6 million through his arbitration raise.
With roughly 47% of the payroll ($98.1 million) set aside for the starting rotation alone, it is very unlikely that the team will go after any of the top free agent starters during this current offseason. However, with Hamels, Ben Zobrist, Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, and Brian Duensing all entering the final seasons of their current deals, the Cubs may be willing to shatter their payroll record for the right players.
As the Cubs currently only have $82 million committed for 2020 ($121 after arbitration estimates) due to these expiring contracts, the following are seven free agents that could find their way into Wrigleyville for the 2019 season and beyond.
The Chicago Cubs already have a perennial MVP candidate in the middle of their infield, but they will likely be on a search to find a long-term double-play partner.
Javier Baez compiled an incredible 83 extra-base hits alongside 111 runs batted in and 101 runs scored. On the other hand, his middle-infield mate in Addison Russell only compiled 27 extra-base hits alongside 38 runs batted in and 52 runs scored.
Although Russell only played in 130 games compared to the 160 played by Baez, it is unlikely that he would have been able to produce much more on offense. Aside from his lack of offense, Russell’s issues off of the field make it unlikely that he factor into the Cubs long-term plans.
Ben Zobrist has the ability to play alongside Baez in the infield, but Cubs manager Joe Maddon would likely prefer to keep him in a super-utility role in order to maintain lineup flexibility. As there is an opening within the middle-infield next season, Manny Machado could be a perfect fit.
Despite concerns surrounding Machado based on his hustle comments during the postseason, he is undoubtedly an extremely productive player. Through 162 games last season, Machado compiled 75 extra-base hits, 107 runs batted in, and 84 runs scored. He also put together an incredible .297/.367/.538 slash-line through his 632 at-bats on the season.
Machado is expected to earn a contract in the 10 year, $300 million range this offseason, which could take the Cubs payroll upwards of $230 million ahead of the 2019 season. However, if the organization feels that Machado could be the difference in winning another World Series, it would definitely be worth the significant payroll increase for one season.
After all, as the Cubs have a large amount of expiring contracts following next season, the payroll could drop by roughly $80 million ahead of the 2020 season. This would bring the estimated 2020 payroll to $151 million, even with Machado’s hypothetical $30 million factored into the payroll. Although the team would need additional players to fill out the roster, they would still have $40-50 million to spend if the organization intends to maintain a $200 million payroll going forward.
If the Chicago Cubs are uninterested in giving out additional lengthy contracts before extending players like Bryant or Baez, they could focus on adding short-term solutions to maintain a large level of payroll flexibility going forward.
Many players on the Cubs are known for their ability to play numerous positions on any given day, which would make Marwin Gonzalez a solid addition to the team. Throughout his seven-year career, Gonzalez has spent a significant amount of time at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and left field.
During this time, he has compiled an impressive .264/.318/.419 slash-line with 76 home runs, 139 doubles, 292 runs batted in, and 303 runs scored. To make Gonzalez more appealing, he also has 30 games of postseason experience, including a World Series championship in 2017. Throughout his postseason career, Gonzalez holds a slash-line of .227/.306/.381 with 9 extra-base hits, 13 runs batted in, and 10 runs scored.
Although Gonzalez has spent his entire career with one organization, he does have experience in both the National League and the American League. During the 2012 season (in which the Houston Astros spent their final season in the NL), Gonzalez played in 80 games. Throughout this time, he was primarily a super-utility bench player, so he was able to compile pinch-hitting experience while filling in at numerous positions through late game double switches.
Between his defensive versatility, his postseason experience, and his impressive switch-hitting ability, Gonzalez should expect to earn a 3 year, $27-30 million contract this offseason. As this contract would easily fit into the Cubs current payroll obligations, it would also give the organization a very capable player to place anywhere within the lineup each day.
The Chicago Cubs have a very solid bullpen already put together for the upcoming season. However, as numerous players were called upon to save games last season, they could very well be on the search for an additional late-game option.
Last offseason, the Cubs made a somewhat surprising signing when they gave Brandon Morrow a two-year, $21 million guarantee. As Morrow has a history of getting injured, he once again missed time when he only appeared in 35 games last season.
Nonetheless, during the games he was able to appear, he was extremely effective with a 1.47 ERA, a 2.96 FIP, and a 1.076 WHIP through his 30.2 innings pitched. However, despite compiling an impressive 22 saves through prior to the All-Star break, he did not pitch another inning after an appearance on July 15th.
This enabled Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Jesse Chavez, Brian Duensing, Randy Rosario, and even Jorge De La Rosa to combine for 24 of the Cubs 46 saves on the season. Due to this, the Cubs may be on the lookout for a more reliable closing option as they had with Aroldis Chapman down the stretch and throughout the playoffs in 2016.
Although Chapman is not available to sign, Craig Kimbrel could very well fill that late inning role for the Cubs next season. During his 7th All-Star season in 2018, Kimbrel compiled 42 saves, a 2.74 ERA, a .3.13 FIP, and a 0.995 WHIP through 62.1 innings pitched. He also pitched in 10.1 postseason innings as he helped the Boston Red Sox capture a World Series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kimbrel has appeared in at least 57 games for eight straight seasons, so he could provide much-needed stability to the back-end of the Cubs bullpen for many years to come. Despite already having 9 seasons under his belt, Kimbrel is still only 30-years-old. This should enable him to receive a contract between $13-15 million per year over the next 4-5 seasons. The Cubs have the payroll flexibility for this type of contract, so Kimbrel to the North Side is a real possibility.
Although the Chicago Cubs have a very impressive collection of relievers under contract, there is always room for improvement as late inning relievers become more important each season.
If the Cubs are unable to acquire an impact reliever through a trade, or if they are unable to sign Kimbrel, there are plenty of additional options available this offseason. As advanced statistics prove that most starting pitchers become less effective the more times they face opposing hitters in a game, a talented bullpen is vital to a team having success.
David Robertson put together yet another solid season for the New York Yankees in 2018. Through 69 appearances, he compiled a 3.23 ERA, a 2.97 FIP, and a 1.033 WHIP. This was also Robertson’s ninth straight season with at least 60 relief appearances. Throughout his very durable eleven year career that includes two and a half years with the Chicago White Sox, Robertson has posted a very impressive 2.88 ERA, a 2.81 FIP, and a 1.145 WHIP.
Adam Ottavino also had a solid season for the Colorado Rockies in 2018. Through 75 appearances, he compiled a 2.43 ERA, a 2.74 FIP, and a 0.991 WHIP. As evidence that he was snubbed from the All-Star game, he put together 112 strikeouts in his 77.2 innings pitched with only 36 walks.
Zach Britton had a slow start to the 2018 season for the Baltimore Orioles as he worked his way back from an injury, but he was able to show a glimpse of his All-Star form after he was traded to the Yankees mid-season. Through 25 appearances for New York, Britton compiled a 2.88 ERA through 25.0 innings pitched. He also made 4 postseason appearances, including pitching 4.0 innings with 4 strikeouts compared to 1 walk during the ALDS.
The Cubs are unlikely to be able to sign all of these pitchers in one offseason, but they would still vastly improve their bullpen by adding any one of the three. Although each of these relievers will likely receive a three-year contract in the $27-33 million range, the Cubs should be able to easily fit one of them into their future payroll plans due to the on-field value each would provide.
The Chicago Cubs have an interesting mix of outfielders already under team control for next season. Nonetheless, they are still in the mix for the top outfielder on the market this offseason.
Similar to Machado, Bryce Harper will likely receive a contract in the 10-year, $300 million range. However, as mentioned previously with Machado, Harper could still fit into the Cubs current and future payroll plans as many players are entering the final year of their current contract.
Through 159 games last season, Harper compiled a very impressive .249/.393/.889 slash-line. As his slash-line went alongside 34 home runs, 34 doubles, 100 runs batted in, and 103 runs scored, he would be an incredible addition to an already impressive Cubs lineup.
Harper recently turned 26-years-old, but he has already earned six All-Star appearances through his first seven major league seasons. As the Cubs are in win-now mode, his .211/.315/.487 slash-line alongside his 10 extra-base hits, 10 runs batted in, and 12 runs scored within the postseason make Harper’s resume even more appealing.
Even though the Cubs have Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Albert Almora, and Kyle Schwarber already in the fold for next season, Harper will still be heavily pursued by the organization. If the team is able to sign Harper, they could also move one of these players to help solve another area of need.
Unless the Cubs are able to move an expensive player (or two) such as Heyward, Lester, Chatwood, and/or Darvish, it would be unlikely that the organization will have the payroll flexibility to sign both Machado and Harper this offseason. However, as the organization generates a massive amount of revenue each season, signing both of these All-Stars is not completely out of the question.
Next. Five potential trade targets for the Cubs. dark
Recap of the Seven Possible Free Agent Signings:
1. Manny Machado
2. Marwin Gonzalez
3. Craig Kimbrel
4. David Robertson
5. Adam Ottavino
6. Zach Britton
7. Bryce Harper