Chicago Cubs conspicuous by their silence in Winter Meetings

Willson Contreras, catcher. Contreras famously entered the 2018 season with a declared goal of being the game’s best catcher. He made the NL All Star team, then collapsed to a .200/.276/.294 post-All Star break slash line.

In 2017, Contreras was a 4.0 WAR catcher; he fell to 2.8 in 2018. His OPS+ fell from 118 to 92.

If Contreras proves that the second half of 2018 was an aberration, a return to his former form will all by itself improve his team by one or two games. If he doesn’t, the Cubs will find themselves saddled with a sub-par first string catcher.

Kris Bryant, third baseman. When the Cubs won the World Series, Bryant was the league’s Most Valuable Player. Between 2015 and 2017, he averaged 31 home runs, 91 RBIs, a 140 OPS+ and a 6.2 WAR. Hampered by injuries that cost him 50 games in 2018, Bryant’s totals fell to 13 homers, 52 RBIs, a 119 OPS+ and a 1.9 WAR.

It is tempting, and probably accurate, to ascribe all of those declines to the injuries and assume Bryant’s return to full, pre-2018 production in 2019. If so, that alone is likely to inject four or more games of success into the Cubs’ lineup.

But Bryant does have to demonstrate he can come back; he’s never had to do so before, the 2018 season being the most frustrating of his career.

Addison Russell, shortstop. Russell, of course, begins the season with a 40-game suspension that makes his future problematic for one more reason than it already was.  Baez’ emergence as a full star – at shortstop in Russell’s absence – only intensifies the debate about Russell’s future.

Possibly due to the influence of those domestic issues on his play, it’s never been especially clear where Russell’s true talent level lies. He’s never hit above .250, and his power flagged last year, to just five home runs and 38 RBIs. Despite his reputation as an exceptional fielder, Russell, who will be 25 on opening day, has yet to establish that he’s much more than an average shortstop, with a 3.0 average WAR for his career. He has never topped 100 in OPS+, falling to 74 in 2018.

That makes the first question with Russell whether he’ll even get a chance in 2019. If Baez and Ben Zobrist establish themselves as a reliable middle infield combination in Russell’s absence, then what value does Russell have?

For the Cubs, the only saving grace is that Russell lacks negotiation leverage at arbitration, and will probably have to content himself during 2019 with whatever the Cubs offer him.