New York Yankees: Evaluating J.A. Happ’s 2-year, $34M Deal

After hours of speculation and false reports, the New York Yankees and J.A. Happ have agreed to a 2-year, $34M deal with an option for a third year based on innings pitched. Let’s break down this deal for both parties.

In 2018, the New York Yankees sured up their rotation by adding J.A. Happ from the Toronto Blue Jays for Brandon Drury and a top Yankee prospect, Billy McKinney. Initially, the move was seen to be a temporary fix to a big problem for the Yankees. Jordon Montgomery was lost to Tommy John Surgery and Sonny Gray was proving to be a Yankee bust.

The temporary stop-measure turned out to be a blessing in disguise, however. Prior to joining the Yankees, in 20 GS with Toronto, Happ had a 4.18 ERA and 1.175 WHIP. After donning the pinstripes, Happ transformed into the kind of pitcher who could carry a team well into the postseason. In 11 GS in New York, Happ had a 2.69 ERA and 1.052 WHIP

Adding Happ to the rotation certainly helped the Yankees retain control of the first Wild Card in 2018, but it did not, however, help them in getting any further in the postseason. In fact, unlike 2017 where the Yankees came one game away from the World Series, the Yankees lost handily to the Boston Red Sox in 4 games in the ALDS.

J.A. Happ, who had a knack for neutralizing Red Sox hitters in the regular season, reversed course in the postseason, losing game 1 of the ALDS by only pitching 2 IP while allowing 5 ER.

Cut to Wednesday, Dec. 12.

The day started off with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic announcing that the Yankees had reached a deal with J.A. Happ, initially believed to be for 3-years. Moments later, however, Rosenthal walked the tweet back.

Apparently, there was a tug of war between Happ’s representatives and the Yankees. The veteran lefty wanted 3-years, while the Yankees were only comfortable offering two. In the end, the two parties met in the middle and the 36-year old Happ agreed to a 2-year deal worth $34M. The deal includes a 3rd year at $17M, if Happ meets an IP limit.

$17M for a 36-year old lefty who has been mediocre for his career seems like a lot, but when we break this down further, the yankees actually did pretty good. In Happ, they get a veteran lefty…

1. with 12+ years of experience.
2. whose ERA has stayed below MLB average since 2015
3. whose GB/FB (0.95) rate is the lowest in 5-years.
4. who misses more bats than he ever has in his career (10.4 SwStr%)
5. who was more valuable to his team in 2018 and will cost less in 2019 than
   • Rick Porcello – 2.7 fWAR (will make $21M+ in 2019)
   • David price – 2.7 fWAR (will make $31M in 2019)
   • J.A. Happ – 3.2 fWAR (will make $17M in 2019)

The deal isn’t all roses and butterflies, however. While Happ was incredibly effective in 2018, throughout his career he has shown to have very little stamina and be very inconsistent. Also, considering that there is younger, more controllable talent available, adding Happ might limit Cashman’s maneuverability.

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Here’s a list of Happ’s limitations:

1. Most IP ever pitched: 195. After that, maxes out at 177.2 IP
2. Too many baserunners. Ranks 30th of 43 SP with a 1.31 WHIP (Min. 1500 IP since 2007)
3. Too Many HR/9. Ranks 31 with a 1.11 HR/9 (Min. 1500 IP since 2007)
4. Will be 39 (or 40) at the end of his contract

With Brian Cashman announcing the the New York Yankees are “a fully operational death star,” however, Yankees fans should feel confident that if an upgrade at starting pitching presents itself, Cashman will bite.

The Happ move might just have been a security measure, much like McCutchen to the Phillies is. If the Yankees miss out on Kluber, Bauer, Syndergaard, or whoever becomes available, at least they get Happ.

Also, remember that next offseason, Madison Bumgarner will be a UFA. So too will, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, and more top-tier starting pitchers.

Yankees fans just have to hope that this Death Star doesn’t meet the same fate as the other two.

Yikes.