REVISED Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects for 2019

Rylan Thomas, 1B/3B

Birthday: 6/25/1997 (21)
Acquired: Draft, 23rd round, 2018
Level(s): advanced rookie Greeneville
Statistics: .257/.400/.492, 55 G, 225 PA, 12 2B, 10 HR, 18.2% BB, 21.8% K

I typically don’t highlight 26th-round picks in this spot, but Rylan Thomas is an exception. The Cincinnati Reds plucked Thomas in the 23rd round this past June out of Central Florida.

Thomas doesn’t fit the typical profile of a player to follow. He’s got some work to do if he wants to stick at third base, and with excellent defenders at the position in the system, that seems like a tough road anyway. However, Thomas also is under 6′ tall, so he’s not exactly ideal height for first base.

With an exceptional eye at the plate and a build that more resembles a football player with the muscle build throughout his frame, Thomas may not be a high contact guy, but when he does contact balls, they go a long, long way.

The profile is not one that succeeds frequently, but with his exceptional eye at the plate and big power, Thomas could be t he exception to the rule, and if he can work hard on defense, he could feasibly work in a corner outfield spot as well, and that sort of defensive flexibility in the modern game along with big power will get you to the big leagues. Just ask Max Muncy!

10. TJ Friedl, OF

Birthday: 8/14/1995 (23)
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, July 2016
Level(s): high-A Daytona, AA Pensacola
Statistics: .284/.381/.384, 131 G, 570 PA, 20 2B, 7 3B, 5 HR, 30 SB, 11.6% BB, 17.5% K

TJ Friedl has been a personal favorite since his story became known the summer of 2016. Multiple teams overlooked Friedl’s draft eligibility during the regular draft, but the Cincinnati Reds were among multiple teams who were tracking him the summer after the draft, and they were able to bring him on board for roughly third-round bonus slot money out of Nevada-Reno.

For many evaluators, Friedl is a guy that simply doesn’t light up their evaluations. He doesn’t really have a single plus tool, but he does have above-average contact, speed, and defense.

That sort of profile for many would end up maxing out as a fourth outfielder profile, but Friedl has outperformed his profile all along, as his 5’10”, 170-pound listing could be even exaggerating to reality. That sort of size is not a guy you would imagine pounding out extra-base hits at the rate of 30+ in the Florida State League, but he did so before his promotion to AA.

With an excellent eye at the plate and great feel on the bases and in the field for how to best use his speed to be an exceptional baserunner and defender, Friedl has the floor of a future 4th outfielder for the Cincinnati Reds, but the way he works at his game, Friedl very likely could be even more down the line for the Reds or another team who may pick up his services.

9. Mariel Bautista, OF

Birthday: 10/15/1997 (21)
Acquired: International Free Agent, November 2014
Level(s): advanced rookie Billings
Statistics: .330/.386/.541, 56 G, 233 PA, 12 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 16 SB, 6.9% BB, 12.4% K

Typically, a 20-year-old in rookie ball would not register as a top prospect unless it’s his first year in the system. Mariel Bautista is the definition of the exception.

Bautista originally signed with the Cincinnati Reds out of the Dominican Republic as an under-radar signing in the 2014-2015 offseason. Oozing athleticism, there were many directions the Cincinnati Reds could have imagined the 6’3″ outfielder’s path would lead.

He has certainly filled out, definitely more than his listed 170 pounds. He has been able to maintain plus speed as he’s added bulk and worked more lift into his swing, making him a legitimate power/speed threat who can handle center field very well.

After spending a few seasons in complex and short-season leagues, Bautista could be a candidate for full season ball in 2019, and his polish at the plate could allow him to jump up multiple levels per season the next two years.

Whether he makes that leap in 2019 or 2020, Bautista is going to be a very fun prospect to track for Cincinnati Reds fans.

8. Mike Siani, OF

Birthday: 7/16/1999 (19)
Acquired: Draft, 4th round, 2018
Level(s): advanced rookie Greeneville
Statistics: .288/.351/.386, 46 G, 205 PA, 6 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 6 SB, 7.8% BB, 17.1% K

Often being the top high school player from Pennsylvania in a particular draft is not a big thing, but after the incredible success of former Penn prep star Alex Kirilloff in the Minnesota Twins system in 2018 and now the impressive showing of Mike Siani after the Cincinnati Reds selected him in the 4th round could get more attention to the Pennsylvania prep ranks.

Siani was considered the top defensive center fielder in the 2018 draft’s high school class, and some argued he was the best defensive outfielder in the class, prep or college. However, the reports that the rest of his tools were very raw proved to be underselling his impressive ability.

With five-tool ability, Siani already possesses plus-plus defense and a plus-plus arm along with plus speed. He showed much better with his bat than many though, displaying a power stroke that flashed plus in BP and flashed above-average in game.

Siani has a great mentality on the field, working hard and willing to put the team first over his own stat line, and he’s already shown himself to be coachable, making notable swing adjustments since being drafted. He’s noted as a “baseball rat” type by scouts and adding that to his impressive skill set across the board, and Siani could be a guy who finds himself near the top of this list in a year.

It would not surprise at all if the Cincinnati Reds have Siani start the season in the Midwest League for his first full-season action, which would put him on a fast track in his development.

7. Shed Long, 2B/OF

Birthday: 8/22/1995 (23)
Acquired: Draft, 12th round, 2013
Level(s): AA Pensacola
Statistics: .261/.353/.412, 126 G, 522 PA, 22 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 19 SB, 10.9% BB, 23.6% K

The Cincinnati Reds originally drafted Shed Long out of high school in Alabama as a catcher, and he moved from behind the plate after his first full pro season. Injuries limited his time in 2015, but then Long had a huge year in 2016 in what was his first full minor league season, hitting .293/.371/.471 with 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases.

Long has excellent speed that is certainly plus, and he knows how to apply that speed on the bases, both as a baserunner and a base stealer. He does struggle with the glove, and that’s a big concern in finding a defensive home long-term after initially moving Long from behind the plate to take advantage of his speed.

While he has shown solid power over the last three seasons, averaging 43 extra-base hits over his three full seasons with double-digit home runs each of those seasons, but he has a significant uppercut in his swing that generates that power from his slight 5’8″ frame.

That big swing will lead to struggles with his contact ability and higher strikeout rates than you’d like, and the defense concerns are certainly real, but if he can continue walking at better than a 10% rate and perhaps could transition to left field, Long has enough blend of tools that he’s been able to show at AA that he should make at least a bench role in the major leagues.

6. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP

Birthday: 9/18/1995 (23)
Acquired: International free agent, July 2016
Level(s): AA Pensacola
Statistics: 9-10, 27 GS, 147 IP, 4.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.1% BB, 23.2% K

Vladimir Gutierrez is the first of two prospects on the Cincinnati Reds list that I’m higher on than consensus that I’ve seen, and I’m more than willing to go down as supporting these guys after what I’ve seen of them.

The Cincinnati Reds continued their pipeline from Cuba with Gutierrez when they signed him in 2016. While he’s just 6′ tall and 185-205 in weight and maxed out in physical projection, the raw stuff of Gutierrez is good enough that it really doesn’t need to “add” to be an impressive prospect.

What does need to happen for Gutierrez is refining of that raw stuff. He throws a fastball that worked into the mid-90s and can threaten triple digits in short stints. The curveball is incredibly elite, a definite plus pitch and more often than not a double-plus offering. His change flashed fringe-plus movement as well in 2018, sitting as a definite average pitch that plays as a third pitch.

All of that puts a #4 starter expectation on Gutierrez, with a possible transition to the bullpen becoming a very positive thing. He is 23 already, so the Cincinnati Reds may have a tough decision to make about his future if he’s unable to generate better movement on his fastball to lead his arsenal in 2019, whether to move him permanently to the bullpen, as they did with Raisel Iglesias, or attempt to continue with him in the rotation.

5. Tony Santillan, RHP

Birthday: 4/15/1997 (21)
Acquired: Draft, 2nd round, 2015
Level(s): high-A Daytona, AA Pensacola
Statistics: 10-7, 26 GS, 149 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6% BB, 21.3% K

If anyone were to look at Tony Santillan‘s line and underestimate his raw stuff, they could be excused. Throughout his time in the Cincinnati Reds system, Santillan has shown incredible stuff on the mound that simply doesn’t show up in the strikeout rate the way you would assume.

You would assume better numbers after seeing Santillan, who is a significant man at 6’3″ and 240 pounds, throwing an incredible fastball that can reach upper-90s with a very good plane.

Santillan uses his heavy fastball to generate a ton of weak contact from hitters along with his sharp-breaking slider that doesn’t dip off of bats but jumps away from the heart of bats, again creating weak contact. His big concern as a prep pitcher out of Texas was the command of his stuff, but he’s come a long way on that aspect of his game, to the point where some evaluators considered his control plus and his command above-average.

While there’s going to be the reliever risk with Santillan simply because of his upside as a reliever being so high that it’s tempting for the Cincinnati Reds to do so, the hard work that Santillan has done to calm down his delivery and build up his command and control should allow Santillan to work as a starter, with a #2 upside and a likely mid-rotation role down coming soon.

4. Hunter Greene, RHP

Birthday: 8/6/1999 (19)
Acquired: Draft, 1st round, 2017
Level(s): low-A Dayton
Statistics: 3-7, 18 GS, 68 1/3 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.8% BB, 30.3% K

Before the 2017 draft, there were questions whether Hunter Greene would play shortstop or pitch as a pro. Nearly every major league team wanted him to pitch, the Greene wanted a chance to try his skills with the bat as a pro, and the Cincinnati Reds allowed him to do so after making him the #2 overall pick in 2017.

That only lasted 7 games and 30 plate appearances as a DH in his draft year. He realized that hitting as a pro was going to be significantly more difficult than pitching, and he chose to focus his work on the mound.

Greene has some of the most easy velocity you could see, but even with his seeming easy delivery, he ended up spraining his elbow ligament, and he needed a PRP injection in 2018 and missed a huge chunk of the year. He is on track to be ready for 2019’s opening day.

The development path for Greene will be slow and steady as he’s incredibly athletic, but his fastball had such velocity and life that he rarely used anything else in high school, so he’s still building up his offspeed stuff. His slider took a huge step forward in 2018, and if he could see similar development in his curve and/or change, he could be one of the elite pitchers in the entire game.

An interesting comparison made during All-Star week as Greene’s big velocity stole the show in Washington, D.C. was to current Nationals ace Max Scherzer who came to the majors with a fastball and not much else but now has multiple plus pitches that he can use in game due to his athleticism and willingness to work with coaches to improve.

Most likely, Greene will open in Dayton again, with quick movement up to Daytona at high-A, but it’s not likely that he pushes forward to upper minors in 2019 as the Cincinnati Reds will take their time with Greene.

3. Jonathan India, 3B

Birthday: 12/15/1996 (21)
Acquired: Draft, 1st round, 2018
Level(s): advanced rookie Billings, advanced rookie Greeneville, low-A Dayton
Statistics: .240/.380/.433, 44 G, 184 PA, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB, 15.2% BB, 23.9% K

The reputation for Jonathan India at the University of Florida before he went to the Cape Cod League in 2017 was that of a defensive stalwart that was likely going to be a stable shortstop and a standout at second or third if he moved. Then India had a summer in the Cape Cod League where his BP shows were incredibly impressive, and he carried that success forward to his 2018 season for Florida.

His change in swing and really trimming up his body led to India being one of the top collegiate prospects in the entire country all spring, with heavy arguments for the top college position player in the country. He’s added some strength as well, going from 185-190 to a solid 205-210 now without sacrificing athleticism.

The Cincinnati Reds grabbed India with the 5th overall selection, and he worked his way up to full-season all in his craft season, showing power and speed both on the year.

Overall, India has a rare blend of elite defense along with balanced offensive skills that give him average run grades along with plus raw power and fringe-plus contact rates due to his work at controlling the strike zone.

He will move quickly, and he could end up moving off of third base due to Eugenio Suarez and the impending free agency after 2019 of Scooter Gennett at second base. He should continue to play plus defense at second, and he could finish 2019 with some major league time, almost certainly playing in the upper minors by the end of the season.

2. Taylor Trammell, OF

Birthday: 9/13/1997 (21)
Acquired: Draft, 1st round, 2016
Level(s): high-A Daytona
Statistics: .277/.375/.406, 110 G, 461 PA, 19 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 25 SB, 12.6% BB, 22.8% K

Behind Senzel, the Cincinnati Reds organization’s #2-4 prospects could really be in any order without a lot of argument, and all three should be within 20-30 spots of each other in top 100 lists, if not even closer. For me, Taylor Trammell is the clear class of the three, however.

Trammell was an elite two-sport athlete coming out of high school in Georgia in 2016. He was an incredible running back in high school and that led quite a few teams to shy away from him, assuming he would have a big bonus demand. The Reds gambled on Trammell with their competitive balance pick, knowing they could spread the big cost of his bonus by grabbing other low-cost options in the draft.

He has certainly made a big impression and made that spending worth it. Trammell shows tremendous recognition in both pitch recognition and zone recognition at the plate, something rare for a two-sport guy. He has power in his swing, though he’s not shown it to a significant degree to this point.

Trammell has the type of skill blend that should allow him to put together offensive statistics that will have fantasy players drooling, using his double-plus speed to tally steals and adding power numbers through plus raw power. While he’s a double-plus fielder, he seems to struggle off the bat in center, and his arm is below-average, so left field could be his future destination, though he should be elite there.

One of the most exciting players in minor league baseball right now, Trammell should be a guy that Cincinnati Reds fans are very excited about. He’ll get his first shot at the upper minors this year, and he could be pushing for major league time by the end of 2020.

1. Nick Senzel, IF/OF

Birthday: 6/29/1995 (23)
Acquired: Draft, 1st round, 2016
Level(s): AAA Louisville
Statistics: .310/.378/.509, 44 G, 193 PA, 12 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 9.8% BB, 20.2% K

Coming out of Tennessee, the one question that Nick Senzel had was what position he would play. Everyone was certain that he would hit, and the Cincinnati Reds gambled on his bat with the 2nd overall selection.

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He’s definitely hit throughout his minor league career, with a .314/.390/.513 line over his minor league career so far, but that minor league career consists of just 231 games thus far. He’s shown solid power, both in gap power and home run power, which was something some were concerned about as he was being drafted.

With experience at second base and third base coming out of college, Senzel has shown well defensively at third base and second base as well, but he may need to get out of the infield just to save his health, and the Cincinnati Reds seem to understand this as well.

He ended up playing quite a bit of outfield in fall instructs, and from all reports, it went very well. The hitting has never been an issue. If he can add in a quality defensive position and stay healthy, Senzel could be up in 2019, and he could be a legit Rookie of the Year challenger as soon as he’s up with his innate hitting ability.

Senzel should be a guy who anchors the Cincinnati Reds lineup for many years to come. He’s among the top 10 prospects in the entire game.

With moves that should give the 2019 team a chance to at least challenge for a positive record, Cincinnati Reds fans could be watching relevant baseball after the trade deadline for the first time in quite some time.