Houston Astros: Are the remaining top relievers worth signing?
The Houston Astros will be without its most dominant bullpen asset in 2019. But is that enough of a reason to willingly sign a top reliever, given how much money it will cost?
The Houston Astros lost one of their best relief pitchers this offseason. But Collin McHugh didn’t depart to a different team or free agency, just to the starting rotation.
Nevertheless, Houston’s front office needs to replace the efficient right-hander in the pen.
There are already several viable options for the Astros on their roster. Yet none of them offer a 2018 resume with a sub-2.00 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio near 4.50.
Only a few MLB pitchers can claim they have matched those numbers before. Yet, a few of them remain on the free agent market, including Adam Ottavino and Craig Kimbrel.
The issue remains whether Houston’s front office is comfortable with spending more than $10 million a year to strengthen the bullpen. That significant amount of money could be allocated for a starting pitcher. That’s what the Astros arguably need most at this time.
Houston’s relief corps was also the best in the league in ERA and multiple other categories. But the Astros ranked second-to-last in relief innings, indicating that it helped having a strong starting rotation.
Even without McHugh, Houston can still rely on effective pitchers like Roberto Osuna and Hector Rondon. Ryan Pressly also enjoyed a strong second half last year while in Texas, sporting a sub-1.00 ERA.
But even with strong track records, relievers can be inconsistent. Chris Devenski acts as an example, as he was arguably the most efficient Astros pitcher in 2016 and 2017.
Yet he wasn’t as dominant last year, registering an ERA near 4.00. He also wasn’t as effective against left-handed hitters, which made him one of the more dependable pitchers in prior seasons.
Houston has an opportunity to sign one of the better relief pitchers before Spring Training begins. But are any of these superb options worth signing?
Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel has been a top-five closer essentially since his MLB career started in 2010. And the seven-time All-Star has been paid like one during his time in Boston.
However, he’s probably going to earn an even greater salary once he’s signed this offseason. As the best closer on the market, Kimbrel could have set the market if he signed early.
Houston isn’t familiar with spending an egregious amount for a guy that pitches fewer than 100 innings per season. The most they paid a reliever last year was $7 million, and it was for Joe Smith.
Kimbrel can essentially boost any team’s bullpen into one of the best in the league. For the Astros, he would cement the relief crew at the top of the list.
The 30-year-old has seven All-Star appearances since 2011 with 332 saves. His strikeout rate has consistently been better than 13 strikeouts per nine innings.
Kimbrel took a step back after a memorable 2017 season – owned a 1.43 ERA and a 9.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Compared to that season, his 2018 campaign showed some signs of regression. But the question remains whether he will continue to decline now that he’s reached his 30s.
Most signs suggest he still has a few more years as one of the top closers in the game. His velocity sat in the 97 mph range since 2011, and his curveball remains effective than ever. Opposing hitters posted a .82 average against Kimbrel’s curveball, the lowest in his career, per FanGraphs.
Now that Zach Britton signed and obtained $13 million a year, teams could flock to Kimbrel, though they know the price is even higher. And for that lone reason, Houston likely won’t get involved.
The Verdict: Pass
Cody Allen
Allen is in a strange class of his own. The 30-year-old doesn’t qualify as an elite reliever by most analysts, even though he’s been a mostly-dependable closer for a dominant team since 2014.
But the Indians ninth-inning option took a major leap back in 2018, posting an ERA greater than 4.00 for the first time in his career. His walk and home run rates were the highest they’ve been since 2012, when he pitched just 27 games in his opening season.
The bloated stats will not bode well for him as the offseason continues. And it was certain he was not the most trusted arm in Cleveland once Andrew Miller arrived.
Still, Allen remains healthy enough to notch at least 60 innings per season and accrues at least 30 saves per year as well. Though his hit rate is somewhat concerning, the right-hander still whiffs hitters at an impressive rate, though that decreased in 2018 too.
The major concern is that Allen’s velocity has decreased significantly – at least half a mile per hour per season since 2014, per FanGraphs. Even more worrisome is that his fly ball rate increased, making him more prone to the long ball.
It’s no coincidence that Allen allowed a career-high 11 homers in 2018. Nevertheless, opponents are still swinging and missing at a similar rate, and while they make more contact against his curveball, most hits are not of the extra-bases variety.
Houston would not add Allen as the primary closer. Frankly, manager A.J. Hinch will likely have another year of revolving closers unless Roberto Osuna can lock down the spot.
But if the former Cleveland arm is realistic in terms of salary, Allen could be a much better by than his former teammate Joe Smith. And while the Astros are not willing to buck up $10 million a year for the relief pitcher, he shouldn’t expect them to.
If Allen wants to win, he will generously take a pay cut so that the front office can keep its focus on the starting rotation. But if the right-hander wants a larger paycheck, he can wait for another team like the Angels, Rangers or Yankees to overpay for his services.
Fans will find out what he desires soon enough.
The Verdict: Buy – if less than $8 million/year.
Adam Ottavino
Although the former Colorado pitcher had durability issues during his time there, he remains one of the best relievers on the market. He even said it himself, claiming he could strike Babe Ruth out every time were he to face him – an utterly ridiculous and braggadocious remark.
Still, the flamethrower racked up 13 strikeouts per nine innings last season while sporting a 2.43 ERA. What’s even more impressive is that he held opposing hitters to a .124 batting average at Coors Field.
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It’s needless to say that Ottavino has a respectable repertoire that could vastly improve the Astros bullpen. And if he can perform this well in arguably the most hitter-friendly ballpark, he could thrive at Minute Maid Park.
The Yankees have their eyes set on the 33-year-old, even after signing Britton on Saturday. And they have the money to reel in Ottavino. Like Kimbrel, he will ask for a major contract, and he may receive even more than Britton no matter where he goes.
But Ottavino has consistency issues that could hinder his performance – and keep Houston away. He’s only had two relatively good years while in Colorado. And while he pitched in more than 60 affairs each of the past two seasons combined, he had a season-ending injury in 2016.
Nevertheless, he’s exactly what many teams want – a setup man that whiffs a lot of hitters and can, when healthy, approach the 80-game mark. He’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward hurler.
Next. Houston still needs another starting pitcher. dark
While the Astros wouldn’t mind bringing in another elite reliever, they aren’t desperate to add to their list. There are a plethora of other options on the market at a cheaper price, primarily Kelvin Herrera and Bud Norris.
Thus, Houston shouldn’t pull the trigger on a volatile guy like Ottavino.