The Houston Astros have pending questions to answer in their starting rotation. A solution to one spot is shifting Collin McHugh from a reliever to starter. How he performs will be a key part of Houston’s upcoming season.
Houston Astros fans expected the front office to replace at least one of the departing two starting pitchers from last season. Yet general manager Jeff Luhnow chose to take another route.
But few anticipated being without Lance McCullers Jr. for the entire upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Thus, three glaring holes remained in the rotation following November.
Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole hold two spots in Houston’s rotation irregardless – barring injuries. Josh James proved himself worthy of a back-end spot in 2018. Brad Peacock or another pitching prospect will likely fill one of the other two spots.
However, the most critical addition to the rotation at this point is Collin McHugh. He was the best Astros reliever in 2018, but Luhnow felt comfortable tossing him back into the starting mix.
McHugh confirmed Tuesday that Houston plans to reestablish him in his former role. And he’s ready for the challenge. Whether he’s capable of being as effective as he was last season is another question.
Collin McHugh just said on MLB Network he "is ready to go as a starter." He said the club is preparing for him to be a starter as well. Also said he's willing to help out in the bullpen again. (Which he was super successful at last season).
— Jessica Kleinschmidt (@KleinschmidtJD) January 15, 2019
Astros fans must have realistic expectations. The 31-year-old will replace Charlie Morton, who went a combined 29-10 during the past two seasons. He also averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
While Morton sported a higher WHIP than most above-average pitchers in the league, he provided consistency every five days. Behind a powerful one-two punch in Cole and Verlander, Morton was stable even against more intimidating offenses.
Yet McHugh played the same role as Morton, just under difference circumstances. While the Astros utilized a carousel of relievers to close games, McHugh shut opponents down as a prime setup man.
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But the Astros pitcher wasn’t just one of the best relievers in Houston. He sat near the top in several categories among guys like Josh Hader and Blake Treinen in ERA and WHIP.
Now McHugh has to bring that dominance every fifth day. When he was in the Astros’ rotation throughout 2014 and 2015, McHugh was efficient, even though his team had yet to peak.
Yet he struggled throughout 2016 and endured a long-term injury in 2017, which limited him to a little more than 60 innings. His durability will surely be tested, as he now hopes to surpass the 160-inning mark – last year he pitched 72 1/3 innings.
There is one interesting aspect relevant during McHugh’s time as a starter. During 2014 and 2015, he was more successful during the second half of his starts. He held opponents to a lower average and OPS between pitches 31 and 60.
However, that trend flipped in 2016 and continued into 2017. As a reliever, he tossed more than 30 pitches in 16 of his 58 appearances during the regular season, per ESPN. It will be interesting to see how he fares once he reaches that mark during each start.
Nevertheless, the Astros can make the necessary changes during the upcoming campaign if McHugh cannot readjust to his former role. He explained he is willing to contribute as a reliever when needed.
If Houston acquires a more-prolific starter prior to the trade deadline or relies on a top prospect as the season progresses, McHugh might find his way back to the bullpen. Either way, he will be a key player throughout the entire season.
Astros – and baseball – fans will see whether McHugh peaked with his stellar campaign last year, or if he is in the midst of a multi-season dominant stretch. He could determine how Luhnow and company approach their rotation situation in 2019.