How might the Reds turn their season around?

   A Statistical Analysis

The Cincinnati Reds have posted an overall ERA of 3.32 to begin the 2019 season. It is a mark that ranks as the second highest in the entire sport, serving as the best in the national league. Only the Rays posted a superior ERA with their exceptional 2.82.

The Reds have posted a 6-4 record in their last 10 games. In that span, they have faced the Giants for 4, Athletics for 3, and Cubs for 3. One of those teams is over .500- the Cubs- and the Reds were 2-1 against the division leaders. In the same stretch if games their run differential has been +16. In the 10 prior games, the Reds are 4-6 with a differential of +10- facing the Cardinals, Mets, and Giants.

Within the 20 games under discussion, the Reds have had wins of 12-1, 9-2, 12-4, and 7-0. The most lopsided loss was 6-3 to the Cardinals on April 27. The trend that most of this massive run differential disparity comes from relatively few games. However, the argument could be made that they pitch to such low scores that once their offense finally comes through in a major way, for the most part, they are lopsided scores.

The pitching would seem to be above all else utterly consistent, enough so that a standard output of runs will allow them to win games on the regular. The rising mark of 4.14 runs per game- placing them 22nd in the league- is the main culprit for their lackluster record.

Before a relatively hot stretch since the start of May, the Reds struggled to score enough to support their outstanding starting staff. As of April 27, the Reds were averaging 3.84 runs per game. Therefore it is pretty clear that there has been somewhat of an improvement in their offensive production, which suggests a trend is beginning to form.