Phillies prediction: GM’s trade target
While the Phillies faithful are expecting a “run-of-the-mill rotation” patch or a questionable failed effort, general manager Matt Klentak is presenting –as usual– a tight-lipped facade to catch the competition flat-footed.
Preemptive strike:
At first blush, a perfect match for the Philadelphia Phillies doesn’t appear likely, or another GM will offer more for a prized southpaw. However, Klentak has established a pattern for talent preference, quick moves other than $330 million deals, and a potential comparison for the present and future.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Knowledge is telling the past. Wisdom is predicting the future.” – W. Timothy Garvey
Even though fans bemoan the losing, the offense and the pitching, expectations were out of proportion before game one. In fact, early forecasts had the red pinstripes finishing third in the National League East, not first. So, it’s neither smooth sailing nor crashing on the rocks.
The good guys lost their leadoff man on June 3, but their original two-hole hitter’s slump had started on May 31 with no knocks in 10 at-bats through June 2. Yes, perception is often wrong! As for the pitching, the bullpen can’t stay healthy, and just three starters can consistently keep the team in many contests.
Regarding sellers, some are where the Phils were in 2015: rebuilding. Basically, they want salary relief and/or solid Double-A prospects who have MLB talent, but do those youngster have the mentality for the highest plateau? Translation: Half the game is physical, but 90 percent of each contest is mental.
Based on their careers and 2019 stats, six potential fits for the Fightins’ starting staff include one ace, three two-slot hurlers and two mid-rotation arms. Four are left-handed, three are available now, and all six could be with another organization by the deadline. However, only one checks all Klentak’s boxes.
The basic idea for a restructuring franchise is stockpiling prospects by swapping their aging veterans. Roughly, the acquired players must be highly rated or have certain MiLB-level success: The ability in Double-A is the same as the majors. The difference is the experience, maturity and mentality.
In the front office, Klentak is the point man: He negotiates moves with other clubs. But if it involves top minor leaguers or exorbitant dollar amounts, the president and possibly ownership must sign off on it. For July, Philadelphia execs want a lefty to slot second with affordability and immediacy.
Klentak’s direction:
Firstly, the Phillies can make one –and only one– big trade between now and July 31. The GM, however, will stand pat with the offense, the outfield and the relief corps, while he concentrates on the five-man staff. Realistically, no team plugs every hole!
With every starter being right-handed, Klentak needs a two-slot portsider. Fortunately, four of the six moundsmen who are or could be available are southpaws, but one righty is an ace having a dominant campaign.
The Phils are at $196.4 million, and the competitive-balance threshold is $206 million: a $9.6 million difference. Yes, three relievers earning $24.5 million total will end this year, and the Luxury Tax ceiling will be $2 million more for 2020. But part of that added $26.5 million will cover salary increases and J.T. Realmuto‘s extension.
Considering their key players who are ages 26 to 28, management prefers someone earlier in their prime: 27 through 32. And the Fightins stars except for Realmuto are under control for four summers. In other words, they have a basic four-season window for their third parade.
Currently, the red pinstripes have three consistent starters but will need four for the playoffs. And this is top-of-the-list urgent and immediate. Logically, if they appear too eager, they’ll be at a disadvantage.
As for Klentak’s pattern, he offers top prospects for longer-term deals. To illustrate, Sixto Sanchez was the proposal for Realmuto, but Adonis Medina was made available for a superstar rental. So, Medina, Mickey Moniak and/or Cornelius Randolph could be the offer for a two-month acquisition or the perfect fit.
Elimination process:
For the Phillies execs, finding the ingredients to complete a satisfactory swap isn’t easy. For instance, the asking price, the competition, the fit and the time frame are some determining factors. Translation: good except for?
Firstly, Zack Greinke is 35 and is under contract for $85.5 million through 2021: He doesn’t fit agewise or financially. And the Arizona Diamondbacks will probably eat roughly 50 percent and expect prospects to rebuild or retool. However, they’re in the wild-card hunt and won’t move him without a situational change.
Although the Texas Rangers are one of three American League clubs within 2 games of the second wild card, Mike Minor will be 32 on Dec. 26 and under commitment through ’20. Basically, the lefty would only be a stopgap for 2020’s rotation.
With Arizona, Robbie Ray will be 28 on Oct. 1 and will be under $10 million for ’20 like Minor. But his numbers are third starter-like at 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA and similar ERA estimators. So, while the Diamondbacks are two games behind the second wild card, they are one game below .500 and won’t trade anyone until July.
Considering rentals, organizations are unwilling to offer a blue-chipper for Madison Bumgarner. Plus he’s 3-7 with a 4.28 ERA and will be 30 on Aug. 1 with mid-rotation stats like Jake Arrieta. Yes, he was solid in Octobers. But 2016 was his last ace-like 162.
Right-hander Marcus Stroman, 28, will probably be in the $10-14 million range for 2020, his last arbitration year; and he is 5-9 with a 3.04 ERA in the AL East. So, his higher ERA estimators make sense, as does the New York Yankees’ interest: They have three left-handed starters and need a righty.
Negotiations progressing:
Although Matthew Boyd, 28, is three months older than Stroman, the Phillies probably have more interest in the southpaw: 5-5 with a 3.61 ERA and similar ERA estimators (a 3.08 ERA before his last two outings). But he is in his first of four arbitration summers at $2.6 million and is under team control for 3.5 years.
As for the Detroit Tigers, they are early in their restructuring phase, and Boyd will likely be 32 at its end. They, however, need young controllable talent arriving in 2021 and developing by 2024. Meanwhile, Yankees outfielder Frazier, 24, is MLB ready now and will make an impact beginning in ’21 or ’22.
During their rebuilding’s start, the Fightins had traded Cole Hamels for Double-A prospects, but they preferred MLB-ready players for Ken Giles after Klentak’s arrival. And while the Tigers represent the former, the Yankees Frazier resembles the latter.
Concerning an MiLB package, franchises want quantity and hope one will be a star. Agewise, Medina and Randolph are 22 and Moniak’s 21, but they are developing. And their timeline coincides with Detroit’s. Yes, the Tigers will ask for more, but today’s decision-makers keep their best.
According to a retired GM, a player makes an impact in or after his third season. For a hurler, 60-90 starts is the range, and Boyd began with 86 for 2019. But while 86 percent account for Boyd’s four-seam fastball and slider, he also has a changeup, curveball and sinker. Also, his gas averages 92.1 mph but is 95.8 mph max.
To sum up, the other five moundsmen are backup plans regarding the red pinstripes’ needs and Klentak’s deal-making record. But if the exec sweetens a proposal for Boyd with throw-ins, when can fans expect a completed agreement? June or early July!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* Right-handed starter (stats are through June 23)
Phillies June Targets:
- Bumgarner, almost 30: 16 Gms., 96 2/3 Inn., 3-7, a 4.28 ERA, a 4.20 FIP, a 4.14 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 1.0 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
- *Stroman, 28: 17 Gms.,100 2/3 Inn., 5-9, a 3.04 ERA, a 3.70 FIP, a 4.10 xFIP, a 4.47 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.27 WHIP.
- Boyd, 28: 16 Gms., 94 2/3 Inn., 5-5, a 3.61 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, a 3.49 xFIP, a 3.34 SIERA, a 2.6 fWAR and a 1.11 WHIP.
Phillies July Targets:
- Minor, 31.5: 16 Gms., 103 2/3 Inn., 7-4, a 2.52 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 4.24 xFIP, a 4.27 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Ray, 27.5: 16 Gms., 88 1/3 Inn., 5-4, a 3.87 ERA, a 3.68 FIP, a 3.75 xFIP, a 4.03 SIERA, a 1.7 fWAR and a 1.34 WHIP.
- *Greinke, 35.5: 16 Gms., 102 Inn., 8-3, a 2.91 ERA, a 3.43 FIP, a 3.71 xFIP, a 3.95 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
Phillies Double-A stats:
- *Medina, 22.5: 12 Gms., 60 Inn., 5-3, a 4.05 ERA, a 4.74 FIP, a 4.44 xFIP and a 1.28 WHIP.
Phillies Double-A stats:
- Moniak, 21: 68 Gms., 286 PA, a .268 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .373 SLG, a .164 ISO, a .342 BABIP, 4 HR, 36 RBI and a .755 OPS.
- Randolph, 22: 58 Gms., 222 PA, a .239 Avg., a .311 OBP, a .373 SLG, a .136 ISO, a .318 BABIP, 5 HR, 25 RBI and a .684 OPS.
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