MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-15

In week-15 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” we touch on how If the Washington Nationals do reach post-season play this fall, they may look back on Juan Soto’s home run Saturday night as the season’s defining moment. The Philadelphia Phillies may feel exactly the same, if for utterly different reasons.

If nothing else, Soto’s home run was at least the week’s most critical.

The Nationals trailed the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 when Soto delivered a two-run home run to turn the game’s outcome in the top of the ninth inning.

The victory continued Washington’s momentum, which has now reached 12 victories in the team’s last 14 games. The only frustrating part of the streak has been the Nats’ inability to make up much ground on the division-leading Atlanta Braves, who have gone 10-4 over the same period.

On the plus side, the Nationals have enhanced their wild card prospects, leading that race.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of that so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

9. Rougned Odor, 38 percent

The Texas Rangers remain well behind the Houston Astros in the AL West. The Minnesota Twins, meanwhile, are establishing themselves as the AL Central’s new muscle. But the Rangers are no pushovers, as the Twins learned last weekend.

Trying for a sweep of the teams’ three-game series, the majors’ most prolific home run team ran into a power display led by Odor, who showed that Texas remains a club to be feared.

In a bullpen game for both teams, power was the least visible element most of the way. Through 10 innings, the Twins employed five pitchers, the Rangers brought out four, and they combined to hold opponents to a run each on six Twins hits and eight for Texas.

The only runs scored on a Byron Buxton triple in the second and a Danny Santana base hit in the fourth.

Odor broke things up in the 11th. Adalberto Mejia, Minnesota’s sixth pitcher, had opened the inning by retiring Nomar Mazara, but issued bases on balls to Joey Gallo and Asdrubal Cabrera. It was the perfect setup for Odor. Looking for a center-cut first-pitch fastball, he got it and drilled a three-run bomb into the left-center field seats at Target Field.

With two on and just one out, the odds already favored Texas by 58 percent. Odor’s home run shifted them to 96 percent and proved to be a game-winner when Shawn Kelley retired the Twins without incident.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

T-7. Danny Santana, 38 percent

What a week it’s been for Danny Santana! In just four games, the Rangers utility player amassed 10 hits, two of them home runs, and raised his batting average by 21 percentage points.

The most vital of those 10 hits came Friday night against the Astros.

Still harboring hopes of running down the division leaders, the home-standing Rangers had swapped leads with their higher-rent visitors most of the night. Texas led 1-0, then Houston led 2-1, then Texas tied the game, then Houston led 3-2, and so on. Until, that is, a three-run Astros outburst in the sixth appeared to turn the game. Houston led 8-4 when the Rangers rallied on home runs by Tim Federowicz and Ronald Guzman, the latter tying the game entering the ninth.

Roberto Osuna retired Willie Calhoun to start the bottom of the ninth, but Elvis Andrus singled and stole second. A walk and a strikeout later, Santana came to the plate staring at a pivotal situation. In that circumstance, the odds favored a home team win by 62 percent. But if Osuna retired Santana, momentum would shift back toward the Astros.

Osuna slipped two strikes past Santana, then got his next pitch too close to the hitting zone. Santana lined it into center field, easily enabling Odor to cross home plate with the game-winning run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

T-7. Ben Gamel, 38 percent

The first two games of this weekend’s Giants-Brewers series in Milwaukee have been as tightly contested as any. Saturday night, Ben Gamel helped Milwaukee get even following the heartbreaking extra-inning loss on Friday.

Milwaukee, deeply enmeshed in the five-way race for the NL Central, appeared to have finally seized command when Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar, and Keston Hiura strung up back-to-back-to-back eighth inning doubles. In concert with a sacrifice fly, they gave Milwaukee a 4-2 lead entering the ninth inning.

What happened in the top half of that ninth inning will be dealt with separately. For the moment, suffice to say the contest moved to the bottom of the ninth, the teams even at 4-4, an error having played a key part.

The Giants, having benefited from that error, responded in kind. Crawford, the reliable veteran shortstop, muffed Ryan Braun’s inning-opening ground ball, putting the potential winning run at first. Reyes Moronta struck out Mike Moustakas and Jesus Aguilar but then walked Keston Hiura, sending Braun to second.

Gamel was next, coming to the plate in exactly the identical situation Danny Santana had confronted one night earlier in Arlington: two out, runners at first and second, bottom of the ninth. Like Santana, he ended the suspense, producing a line double into right field that chased Braun home with the game-winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

6. Stephen Vogt, 39 percent

In a series in which both teams’ ace closers had gotten bashed only the previous night, no lead is safe. The Giants proved that again in the top of the ninth inning of their Saturday game against the Brewers.

Trailing 4-2, the visitors rallied for a pair of runs on a game-tying pinch-hit hit by backup catcher Stephen Vogt. Milwaukee did eventually win the game on Ben Gamel’s hit, but Vogt’s hit capped a rally that nearly turned the game in San Francisco’s favor.

This was a series of blown saves and errors, and both elements came into play in the top of the ninth. With Josh Hader having been used – and abused by Giants batters – the previous evening, Brewers manager Craig Counsell turned to Jeremy Jeffress to record the final three outs. The chances of a Brewers victory measured 84 percent when Jeffress took the mound. But he walked Crawford before striking out Donovan Solano.

Austin Slater, whose two home runs the previous evening contributed greatly to the Brewers’ – and Hader’s –- downfall, was next and he stoked the rally with a base hit. With pitcher Derek Holland due up next, Giants manager Bruce Bochy summoned Vogt.

The Giants backup to Buster Posey took a first-pitch ball and then slapped the next pitch over shortstop into left-center. Crawford scored, and when Lorenzo Cain failed to pick the ball up Slater followed him around with the tying run.

Given that division-leading Chicago had already won, Cain’s error might have been condemnatory. Instead, it merely set the stage for Gamel’s heroics.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

5. Stevie Wilkerson, 39 percent

The Baltimore Orioles feature an abundance of unproven players and – as evidenced by their 28-64 record – most of them probably aren’t very good.

Whether outfielder Stevie Wilkerson eventually establishes his credentials as a legitimate big leaguer is yet to be seen. But even if he doesn’t, the 27-year-old rookie will always have Saturday’s decisive hit against the Tampa Bay Rays to remember his experience by.

And who knows? It might mark the start of a great career.

Wilkerson’s Orioles trailed the Rays 1-0 through six innings of the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader in Baltimore. Brandon McKay had shut the Orioles out on three hits through the first five innings.

In the seventh, however, Anthony Santander gave the home fans hope with a leadoff infield hit that Rays second baseman Mike Brousseau couldn’t make a play on. Colin Poche struck out Keon Broxton and faced Wilkerson, who was hitless in his first two at-bats with a strikeout.

So undefined has Wilkerson’s status been with the Orioles that although listed as an outfielder, his most recent previous experience had been to pitch the final inning of Friday night’s 16-4 defeat. He held the Rays hitless, something none of his four Orioles mound predecessors had accomplished.

On Saturday, Wilkerson got a chance to do what he’s paid for, hit. On a 2-2 Poche pitch, he homered over the center-field wall, putting Baltimore ahead 2-1. The Orioles made that run stand up the rest of the way.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

4. Jose Altuve, 39 percent

If any series matched the Giants and Brewers for consistent back-and-forth excitement, it was the battle between the Astros and Rangers in Arlington.

The Rangers may trail badly in that AL West race, but they took the series’ first two games from Houston. They might have won the third one as well if not for Altuve.

The game was tied 5-5 through the regulation nine innings, Houston pitchers having three times coughed up Astro leads. In the 10th, Rangers manager Chris Woodward called on Brett Martin to extend the game, and he did so, retiring the Astros in order. In the bottom of the 10th, Shin-Soo Choo got as far as second base, but the Rangers could not score him.

That sent the game into the 11th with Martin still on the mound. He retired the first two batters, then made the mistake of walking George Springer on a high 3-2 pitch. Altuve was the next batter.

Martin staked the game on breaking balls. Altuve fouled off the first two, then got one that hung over the middle of the plate waist-high. He drove it into the left-center field gap, and when Joey Gallo had to leave his feet to knock it down Springer came all the way around to score.

Following an intentional walk, Myles Straw singled Altuve home with a run that would prove to be more than mere insurance when the Rangers scored in the bottom of the 11th.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

3 Brandon Crawford, 41 percent

A lot preceded Yelich’s critical triple for Milwaukee against San Francisco in the bottom of the ninth inning Friday at Miller Park.

The back-and-forth game had weaved through two lead changes and several ties on its way to the Giants’ 6-5 lead. Milwaukee scored the first two runs before the Giants tied matters on Austin Slater’s home run in the fifth, then took a 4-2 lead on Evan Longoria’s two-run homer one inning later.

But that advantage only lasted as long as it took the Brewers to take their next cuts. In the bottom of the sixth, three hits produced an equal number of runs and a 5-4 Milwaukee advantage. The Giants re-tied the game in the eighth on Slater’s second home run off ace Brewers reliever Josh Hader.

Hader was still in the game when Crawford came up with two out in the top of the ninth. The odds of the Brewers’ bullpen ace surrendering two home runs within minutes of each other are long, but that’s what happened; Crawford sent a 3-1 pitch deep into the right-field seats for what appeared likely to be a decisive home run. That hit shifted the chances of a Giants win from just 39 percent to 80 percent.

As previously noted, the Giants eventually did win, although not until their own ace closer, Will Smith got torched by Christian Yelich.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

2. Charlie Culberson and Brian McCann, 50 percent

When is a decisive hit not a hit at all? Why, when it’s hit by a member of the Miami Marlins, of course.

The conclusion of last Sunday’s Marlins-Braves game in Atlanta was a mashup of controversial calls, the bottom line working exactly as might be expected in a match between the NL East leaders and the tail-end club. At the end of it all, nothing happened, the Braves emerging with their 4-3 lead intact.

It wasn’t anywhere near that simple.

Jorge Alfaro set the stage for the fireworks with a modest infield single short of third on which he was originally called out. But Marlins manager Don Mattingly appealed the judgment of umpire Tom Woodring that Braves pitcher Luke Jackson’s throw had beaten Alfaro, and replay review overturned the ‘out’ call.

It was neither the last time Mattingly’s dispute with an umpire’s judgment would factor into the inning nor the most vital.

Harold Ramirez ramped up the tension by slipping a ground ball through the middle of the Braves infield for a single, Alfaro stopping at second. Trying to sacrifice, Yadiel Rivera managed only a weak popup…but against the Braves defense the ball managed to find a safe landing spot and everybody was safe, Alfaro carrying the tying run to third base.

Statistically, it was an unusual situation. Atlanta still led, yet with the bases full and none out the odds favored a Marlins victory by 65 percent. The next batter, Neil Walker, lifted a fly ball to shallow left, but far enough toward the center that it pulled Charlie Culberson away from his throwing lane to home. Even so, Culberson unleashed a strong throw that Brian McCann caught and simultaneously tagged Alfaro trying to score the tying run from third.

In the instant it took McCann to tag Alfaro, the odds of a Marlins win plummeted from 65 percent to just 15 percent. Mattingly appealed plate umpire Marty Foster’s ‘out’ call as well, but this time the replay booth upheld the ump. Instead of a tie game with two on and just one out, the Marlins still trailed with but one out remaining. Jackson got that out.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-15

1. Juan Soto, 72 percent

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These days the Nationals need every win they can get, and they weren’t getting one Saturday.

Through eight innings, Phillies ace Aaron Nola – abetted by two relievers – had protected a Phillies lead. That lead stood at 3-0 just four innings into the game, and although the Nats slowly whittled away at it they still trailed 3-2 entering the ninth.

Nola was gone by then, having given way in the seventh to Tommy Hunter, then Adam Morgan, and finally to Hector Neris.

Neris appeared to have matters firmly in control when he retired Trea Turner and Adam  Eaton on a groundball and a fly ball, both of them routine. Those outcomes reduced the odds of a Nationals victory to just 4 percent. Anthony Rendon kept them alive, although just barely, with a ground single through the hole between shortstop and third base.

The hit may not have meant much on the odds sheet, but it did give Soto a chance, and he took full advantage. On Neris’s first pitch. Soto got a breaking ball out over the plate and drove it six rows deep into the center-field seats for a go-ahead home run.

When Sean Doolittle blunted a Phillies comeback bid in the bottom of the ninth, the Nationals had that badly needed win.