Kris Bryant has been a popular target in the rumor mill for teams looking to upgrade at third base. What would the Chicago Cubs actually trade him for?
The Washington Nationals made some moves over the past few days, signing veteran infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro to deals. Ken Rosenthal then reported that talks between the Nationals and Chicago Cubs on Kris Bryant have gone “nowhere”.
From yesterday. Did not include possibility of trade for #Cubs’ Bryant. To this point, per sources, those talks have gone nowhere. https://t.co/Cd5uBTm9bJ
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 4, 2020
It has been a quiet offseason on the north side of Chicago but a Kris Bryant trade has been what has been talked about most. After a disappointing campaign that saw the Cubs miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014, Theo Epstein and company moved on from manager Joe Maddon and vowed that they would take a hard look at the team. Trading the superstar and the pick that kicked off a World Series run would be one of the boldest trades of Theo’s career, but how likely is it?
Complicating matters is Bryant’s pending service manipulation grievance hearing. As of now, Bryant has two years of team control left. If the arbiters sided with Bryant, he would only have one year of control. No trade is going to happen until that is resolved but the Cubs seem to be laying the groundwork for when it concludes.
The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves have been two of the most connected teams to Bryant. The Cubs have been insistent on young CF Victor Robles being included but have so far been rebuffed by the Nats. Would that be fair value? What would the Braves offer? Lets find out.
As is the case with every potential trade, we have to establish Kris Bryant’s value. Lets assume Bryant loses his grievance hearing and has two years of team control remaining. MLBTR projects Bryant to make $18.5M this season. Assuming he performs as expected in the 2020 season he would be in line for a hefty raise. We will approximate his final year of control at $25M. So the total financial outlay for Bryant is approximately $44M making him an affordable superstar.
On the field, Bryant has totaled 27.8 fWAR in his career with a peak performance of 7.9 fWAR in 2016. His “worst” season ever was 2018 when he was bothered by a shoulder ailment and still put up 2.3 wins. He looked more like superstar Kris Bryant this past season, contributing 4.8 wins and playing 3B and in the OF. Projecting Bryant at 5.5 wins per year for the next two seasons seems like a fair middle ground based on what he’s done in his career.
Assuming an $8M/WAR valuation, Bryant on field contributions will rack up $88M in total value to an acquiring team. Taking out his expected salary, brings us to a surplus value of $44M. That number obviously goes in different directions depending on your evaluation of Bryant but it gives us a place to start. FanGraphs has done research on prospect valuation and found that position player prospects with a 55 FV grade are worth $46M. Victor Robles projects as a 65 FV moving forward and just turned in a 2.5 WAR season as a 22-year-old. The Cubs can continue to insist on Robles but that would simply be too rich for Bryant since he doesn’t have the same flame out risk as a prospect in the minors. If Robles was a prospect in A or AA ball, there might be more traction there.