San Diego Padres: Another x-factor in the outfield

Franchy Cordero is the latest San Diego Padres outfielder to have big tools and big upside. If Cordero could stay on the field the Padres could have a star to help them compete in the NL West.

History has a funny way of repeating itself. 10 months ago, I wrote about the former member of the San Diego Padres Franmil Reyes being the X-factor for the Padres in 2019 and that he had exciting underlying stats. Reyes actually ended up being traded to the Indians and only put up a combined 1.0 fWAR.

Now, here we are in spring training and I’m ready to fall for another toolsy Padres outfielder. Introducing Franchy Cordero, who has only managed to play 79 games in the past three seasons. Armed with 70-grade raw power, speed, and a 60-grade arm, the 25-year-old lefty-hitting Cordero is an easy guy to dream on.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Fernando Tatis Jr. had glowing words of praise towards Cordero:

"“I feel he’s a player, if he has a chance, he’s going to outplay me, He has more tools than me. He has way more power than me, and the speed is about the same level. He has a chance to be a great player. … If he stays healthy, he can be one of the best players in the game, simple as that. He is, how do you say, when people don’t know about you? I think he’s one of the best players. Hopefully, he has a chance to show what he has.”"

It’s easy to see why, Cordero’s career exit velocity sits at 91.3 MPH. In 2019, that number would have ranked top 30 in baseball and matches that of superstar Juan Soto. His ground ball rate is right around the league average mark at 46% but with his elite power, he should be getting every ball possible into the air. Cordero hits a majority of his balls (55%) up the middle and as a lefty, that makes him vulnerable to the shift.

Cordero also has a career 38% strikeout rate which toes the line of unacceptable even by today’s strikeout happy standards. Cordero will generate a majority of his offensive value in relatively few swings so every ball counts. Cordero’s power/speed combo gives him margin for error at the plate. He can put pressure on infielders for mishits, but that strikeout rate gives him virtually no room for errors.

Cordero can fly and runs as fast as other center fielders like Starling Marte and teammate Tommy Pham at 28.8 feet/second. Defensively, Cordero has been worth -5 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but his sample is only 560 innings. Even if Cordero is neutral to -5 and can hit at an above-average clip, the Padres will have a stud on their hands.

The San Diego Padres are at a crossroads of needing to compete with unproven talent. AJ Preller’s job could be in jeopardy with a bad season. Franchy Cordero is a tooled-up lottery ticket and if he breaks out in 2020 would go a long way towards helping them compete for a wild card.