Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: 2020 ALCS simulation

For the Minnesota Twins, game two of the 2020 ALCS was all Jake’s.

The second ALCS game matchup of Zack Greinke versus Jake Odorizzi stacked up every bit as strong as the Verlander-Berrios pairing had appeared. Greinke (20-4, 2.68) set his name at or near the top of most of the league pitching statistics, that record including a pair of victories against the Twins. He beat them 13-8 June 24, then on July 31 shut out Minnesota 7-0 on six hits.

Odorizzi (17-7, 4.44) could not claim similar success against the Astros. His only 2020 start against them, on June 22, resulted in a 7-3 loss. And like Berrios, he too came out shaky, walking two of the first three Astros he faced. Unlike Berrios, though, Odorizzi steadied, fanning Michael Brantley and getting Yordan Alvarez on an infield bouncer.

Then the Twins went to work settling accounts with Greinke. Luis Arraez opened the bottom of the first with a double into the right-center field gap, and one out later Cruz sent a rocket down the left-field line for an RBI double. In the third, Marwin Gonzalez drove Minnesota’s third extra-base hit past Springer into center, Arraez’s single him to third, and Polanco doubled them both across with a shot to the wall in left. Two outs later Max Kepler’s base hit scored Polanco with the Twins’ fourth run.

The big explosion came in the fifth, and the Astros aided it. Shortstop Carlos Correa muffed an Arraez ground ball for an error, and Polanco took full advantage, slamming a home run off of the façade of the second level in right-center.

That finished Greinke, but it did not finish the Twins. Josh James took over and walked Cruz, surrendered an infield hit to Donaldson, and walked Kepler, loading the bases for Garver. He drove the game’s fifth double to the wall in center, scoring Cruz and Donaldson. One out later, Byron Buxton dropped a single into right, scoring Kepler with the inning’s fifth run.

Buxton was erased on a failed steal attempt, but that opened the door for Gonzalez, who sent Garver across on the Twins’ sixth extra-base hit.

As Verlander had done one day earlier, Odorizzi merely basked in the run support. He did surrender a third-inning home run to Josh Reddick but otherwise silenced the Astros on just two hits through the seventh inning. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli lifted him after eight, there being no further reason to tax him, and Sergio Romo allowed a consolation run in the ninth that made the final only marginally more respectable.

Polanco’s three hits, accounting for four RBIs, led the 15-hit offense.

Houston               001    000    001    — 2    6  1

Minnesota          103     060    00      — 1015  0

W: Odorizzi. L: Greinke.