Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: 2020 ALCS simulation

Game 3 of the ALCS was a marathon for the Houston Astros.

The deadlocked ALCS moved to Houston’s Minute Maid Field, but it would have been impossible to anticipate what would unfold next. The Astros sent Brad Peacock (16-5, 3.56) against Twins starter Kenta Maeda 13-8, 4.14).

Both would pitch creditably, but neither would be around for anything approaching the finish.

The Astros drew first blood on Altuve’s first-inning home run into the Crawford boxes. Minnesota got to Peacock for a pair of third-inning runs on hits by Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco. They increased their lead to 3-1 in the fifth on hits by Eddie Rosario, Ehrie Adrianza, and Buxton, but Houston made it 3-2 in the inning’s bottom half when Reddick homered.

In the bottom of the seventh, Altuve’s double knocked Maeda out of the game, and Bregman’s base hit off Smeltzer evened the score at 3-3.

And there the matter sat virtually indefinitely. A Garver error opened the door for the Astros in the eighth, but they could do nothing with it. In the 10th, Adrianza walked, stole second and took third on Buxton’s base hit. But Pressly retired the next three Twins hitters, Arraez, Polanco and Donaldson, without so much as a weak pop up to escape unscathed.

The Twins mounted their biggest threat in the 12th, this time off Houston’s fourth pitcher, Austin Pruitt. Arraez stroked a one-out single to right and advanced to third base on Polanco’s single to center. Rogers walked Donaldson, filling the bases and bringing up Cruz, who sent a lazy fly ball to medium center.

With above-average speed, Arraez tagged up and decided to try to score. Springer would have none of it; he pegged out the runner with a solid throw to Maldonado to maintain the 3-3 tie.

Finally, in the top of the 14th, the Twins broke through against James, Houston’s fifth pitcher. With two out, Polanco parachuted a base hit into center, then Donaldson went the other way with a fastball, dropping it on the chalk line for a two-base hit. Polanco came all the way around to score.

Three outs away from a critical win, the Twins turned their fate over to their sixth pitcher, Trevor May. But Reddick touched May for a base hit, Springer walked and one out later Alvarez re-knotted the game at 4-4 with a single to right.

That hit also put Springer in scoring position with the winning run, but May got Bregman to pop up then lucked out when Brantley’s screaming liner went right into Arraez’s glove t second for the third out.

The Twins threatened yet again off James in the 15th inning. With one out, Eddie Rosario doubled and took third on Adrianza’s infield hit. But James fanned Buxton and got Arraez on a roller to short.

The issue was only resolved in the bottom of the 16th. After May struck out Reddick, Springer sent everybody home with a cannon shot into the right-field seats. The 16-inning affair exhausted both teams’ bullpens and left more than a bit of frustration on the Twins’ side of the field. They had, after all, stranded 17 baserunners. They also now trailed in the ALCS 2-1.

Minnesota          002    010     000    000    010    0 – 4  16  1

Houston             100     010    100     000    010    1 – 5  15  1

W: James. L: May.