Houston Astros: Justin Verlander to Undergo Tommy John surgery

Implications for the Houston Astros in 2020

From the best team in baseball in 2019 to a sub-.500 team in 2020, the Houston Astros have struggled in multiples facets of the game. With the Verlander news, let’s start with starting pitching.

Last year, the Astros ranked third in MLB with a 3.61 ERA from its starting pitching staff. That ERA has risen almost a full point to 4.40, ranking the Astros 13th in the league.

Verlander, typically known as a workhorse that throws deep into ballgames, will surely be missed for his length. As a staff, Houston’s starters average just 5.6 innings per start. Additionally, only one Houston starter, lefty Framber Valdez averaged more than six innings per start.

In 2020, teams do rely on their bullpens more than ever. This does not equate to winning baseball for Houston. The Astros rank 18th in the MLB in bullpen ERA at 4.48 and their opponent batting average of .258 ranks 25th.

Houston’s offense has also been prone to struggles. Last year, the team averaged 5.68 runs per game while only scoring 4.76 runs per game this season. With a team ERA of 4.43, this means close games dependent on the bullpen. More question marks.

According to Baseball-Reference, the Astros still possess a 97.4 percent chance of making the postseason. However, with a record that’s hovered around .500, the Astros will likely play their first-round on the road. Houston’s team ERA skyrockets away from Minute Maid Park to 6.05, which ranks 28th in the bigs.

Simply put, the Houston Astros are one of the most vulnerable teams heading into the postseason.