MLB Win Totals 2021: Predicting AL West Over Unders
By Travis Koch
MLB Win Totals 2021: Houston Astros
Over/Under 86.5 wins
Prediction: Under
The Astros’ renowned infield remains intact, but George Springer is gone, and so is closer Roberto Osuna. They’ll also be without starters Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, who will miss the 2021 season due to a fractured finger suffered in his first spring training outing.
Even without Springer, Houston should move forward with the top offense in the division. They have a top-three consistent hitter in MLB in Michael Brantley, plus the trio of Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa presents many challenges for opposing pitchers.
Additionally, big years from Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should translate to the Astros having a top-four scoring offense in the AL.
Pitching makes their outlook a bit hazy, however. After Mr. Reliable Zack Greinke, the Astros rotation aligns with three pitchers that, combined, threw as many innings the last two years as Greinke did in 2019 alone. It’s hard to imagine Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, or Cristian Javier reaching 150 innings in 2021.
Houston signed nine-year veteran Jake Odorizzi last week in response to the disappointing Framber Valdez news. Odorizzi experienced a career-year in 2019, owning a 3.51 ERA and averaging 10.1 K/9. Though, his career as a whole dictates he’s a league-average pitcher.
Talent is not an issue for their rotation, but stamina is. If history is a fair benchmark, Astros starters will rarely pitch deep into games, which will lead to their bullpen getting overworked.
At first glance, 86.5 wins seems low for the ‘Stros in 2021. But they’re less experienced than they’ve been in recent dominant years, and in a season where pitching depth will be crucial, they don’t have it. Take the under.