How Jake Arrieta Could Have Changed Miami Marlins History
Had Jake Arrieta been sent to the Miami Marlins in 2014, it likely would have had far reaching consequences for two franchises.
What if the Chicago Cubs had traded Jake Arrieta to the Miami Marlins?
That’s the question The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal left fans of two franchises pondering this weekend when he broke the news that such a move was on the table back in July of 2014.
For Cubs fans, the consequences seem obvious: do the Cubs end their championship drought without the defending Cy Young winner in the fold? As excellent as that 2016 rotation was, that feels like a no. Particularly when you consider some of the other moves Chicago made based on Arrieta’s 2014 and 2015 campaigns. No, what was the longest championship drought in sports is likely still ongoing had Arrieta been dealt for one more boatload of prospects in a bid to be serious contenders for the next few seasons.
For Miami Marlins fans though, the possibilities seem endless for what direction the franchise might have gone had the franchise pulled the trigger on that one.
At a minimum, a winning season was lost. Which, on the surface, seems relatively inconsequential. But for a franchise that had gone so long without a winning record? Even the slightest change to the win-loss column could have been game changing, stretching far beyond a singular season.
The headliner going back to Chicago in the deal? One J.T. Realmuto.
That the prospect was Realmuto is a significant wild card in this round of what-ifs. On the Cubs side, having an elite catcher hitting .300 for them in 2016 might have more than made up for Arrieta’s absence. The only reason Realmuto didn’t start the All-Star Game that season was the uniform he was wearing: Cub Nation easily ends Yadier Molina‘s reign as the perennial NL backstop a couple years early. For the Marlins, that’s elite production missing from a key position. Replacing that 2.6 WAR in 2016, and a silly 4.4 in 2017 would have been exceedingly difficult.
However, given the rest of the offensive talent Miami had, and the fact that most of baseball generally runs the “same catcher” out there in terms of talent, it seems more than reasonable to tack at least a few more wins to each of the Marlins final records from 2014 to 2017. And if you allow for that assumption, then it becomes even more reasonable to ask the following questions, starting with….
If the Miami Marlins had traded for Arrieta and his 5.3 WAR in 2014, do they have a winning record that season?
Despite Rosenthal’s assertion that Miami was “out of contention and headed for a 71-win season”, that’s not quite fair to that 2014 Marlins squad. For one, he’s wrong: Miami won 77 games that year. The Fish were above .500 as late as August 19th, and chasing .500 all July. Fueled by Giancarlo Stanton‘s MVP campaign, that scrappy team had designs on contending for a playoff spot that season. Unfortunately, that MVP campaign ended with a Mike Fiers fastball to the face. But were it not for that pitch, Miami might have been a .500 team even without Arrieta. With him? Seems even more likely 82 wins would have been reach.
Which then sets up an even bigger what if the following season. If manager Mike Redmond had had a winning season in his back pocket in May of 2015, does he get fired that quickly when the team fell flat on its face out of the gate? Or more to the point, particularly if Arrieta had been there to win two or three more games, is Mike Redmond fired at all?
Injuries played a massive role in throwing the 2015 club off the rails. That, and pretty lousy pitching outside of Jose Fernandez, who only returned from injury himself at the midseason point. More on that in a moment. Firing Redmond for what was believed to be a clubhouse full of underperforming stars was one thing. Firing him once those injuries to Stanton and Dee Gordon popped up the following month would have been something else entirely.
Especially since the replacement in 2015 was Dan Jennings, the Marlins GM. A nice enough guy whose highest level of management experience to that point was a high school baseball team. Yes, if you’re late to the Miami Marlins party, that is a thing that actually happened. You don’t make that move unless you absolutely have to make it.
Back to the lousy pitching though, as we might be guilty of getting ahead of ourselves with the manager what if. The entire story of the Miami Marlins transaction page from 2014 to 2016 is the exciting tale of trying to find a suitable No. 2 to pair with Fernandez atop the Marlins pitching rotation. This recently unearthed Arrieta for Realmuto deal might have well been the first attempt to do so, but was hardly the last.
Sadly, it’s the only attempt I’ve ever heard tell of that might have worked out. Do the Marlins trade decent enough Anthony DeSclafani for abysmal Mat Latos if Arrieta is on the team already? Probably not. Going back to 2014, do they trade former first round pick Colin Moran for Jarred Cosart? Not a chance, although it is possible he might have been one of those other prospects going to Chicago. Then again, what would Chicago want with a third baseman if they were just embarking on the Kris Bryant era? As a result, that’s two dumb trades off the books, and a possibly deeper farm system, by the end of 2015.
So with that, let’s turn the page to 2016, and ask…
If Jake Arrieta was on the 2015 and 2016 Miami Marlins, is Don Mattingly even the manager?
As I said, the Miami Marlins famously hired a very inexperienced manager as a replacement for Redmond in 2015.
But if Redmond had survived May of that season, it stands to reason he would have survived the entire campaign. Which begs the question, is Don Mattingly even the manager of this team right now?
Mattingly is a pro’s pro, and just won a Manager of the Year award. He’s widely respected around the game, and the organization is probably better off with him at the helm. Then again, Redmond was strongly in the running for that award himself in 2014. That the same 2016 Miami Marlins roster would have finished with a better record under Mattingly than Redmond is likely, but by no means a lock. Manager wise, the fall out for that decision really starts in 2018 then. The MLB shelf-life for skippers would strongly suggest Redmond wouldn’t still be the manager if he had been retained way back when. Who would be instead is anyone’s guess, but it wouldn’t be Mattingly.
Other Miami Marlins What Ifs For 2016 And Beyond
That being said, back to the Jake Arrieta impact on the Miami Marlins roster itself.
Records first. Even after adjusting for the WAR hit of losing a Realmuto, one of the 2016 or 2017 clubs is posting a winning record with Arrieta on the team. Maybe both. Winning seasons aren’t championships, but they’re not nothing. So let’s consider the ramifications.
Rosenthal himself noted that the odds are long on that disastrous Wei-Yin Chen signing ever happening if Arrieta was in the fold. There’s no way it does. Chen was signed to be that No. 2 behind Fernandez; Arrieta’s 2015 season would have made Fernandez the No. 2 option. Replacing Chen’s “production” with Arrieta those two seasons speaks for itself. The financial and roster implications though? That gets murky fast.
Financially, not paying Chen that ridiculous contract in free agency frees up some money in 2016. Maybe enough to shore up some other holes in the roster. Perhaps an extra reliever, or really, any other free agent starting pitcher. Another possibility would be Miami having been comfortable taking on more money in a midseason trade that year, doing more than they did to add to that team. Jumping ahead to 2017, maybe Miami gets even more aggressive in the bidding for Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, and successfully reels in an All-Star closer that season.
Those Miami Marlins teams are just stronger with Arrieta, and without Chen. Period.
Which brings us to some specific roster implications going forward with Arrieta in a Marlins uniform…
Do the Miami Marlins Trade Prospects For Pitching?
The long and short of all this is that many Miami Marlins front office moves just weren’t necessary with Jake Arrieta under team control.
As mentioned earlier, the game was always giving Fernandez a partner, or replacing him outright in 2017. Arrieta would have checked all those boxes, deepening those rosters. Consequently, in rapid fire style, ask yourself:
- Would the Miami Marlins have needed to trade Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney in 2016?
- Would they have felt the need to trade for Andrew Cashner at the 2016 trade deadline?
- Would Miami have felt compelled to trade Luis Castillo for Dan Straily in 2017?
Unanimous nays. Which really stings for 2016, as the benefit of hindsight shows that about any other move but the two trades they did make would have helped that team more. I suppose you could make a case that Castillo still goes in 2017, in a bid to give Arrieta himself more help. But the financial flexibility of not worrying about the rest of Chen’s contract makes that very unlikely. All of which begs a few more questions:
- Does that 2017 Miami Marlins core get blown up?
- Are the Marlins even sold in the first place?
- What would the team look like today?
Alright, there’s some overlap there. Most reports on reasons behind the sale reflect that Jeffrey Loria did take the loss of Jose Fernandez very personally, so a sale probably still happens. The question then becomes what the new ownership would have done if the Miami Marlins had come with two elite, cheap starting pitchers?
Moving Stanton’s albatross of a salary was likely a necessity. But once that deal is made? In a world with no Chen contract further dragging down Miami’s financial prospects, and in a world where the 2017 Marlins probably win more than they lose, Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter just might have proceeded very differently.
Certainly, this all assumes a lot of best case scenarios. Mainly that Miami’s system could have done for Arrieta what Chicago did, and that Miami would have been fine with replacement level production from catcher. It also puts aside the likely correct thinking that Rosenthal suggests the front office had, in that Realmuto was too precious to trade. As for how the win-loss column would have played out though, none of this feels like a massive leap, at least in the case of those 2016 and 2017 teams.
Of course, all of these what ifs would also come with the price of the current Marlins core being very different. No Realmuto means no Sixto Sanchez., and the trickle down effects continue from there. While the future looks bright for Miami right now, had this different road been taken, who’s to say a rebuild wouldn’t be starting this year as opposed to wrapping up?
Next. Marlins On Right Track With Right Lawyers. dark
Best to focus on the future. But I’ll readily admit that, perhaps more than any other what if trade in team history, this is one the Miami Marlins might want to have back.