Can Miami Marlins Jorge Alfaro Pass Saltalamacchia Test?

The clock could be ticking on Miami Marlins starting catcher Jorge Alfaro. Will he pass the Saltalamacchia Test?

At 1-4, it feels like the sky is falling for the Miami Marlins.

Certainly, that’s the impression amongst fans on the interwebs right now. The rules of both fandom and social media usage require knee jerk reactions, and the search is on for a scapegoat for Miami’s early season woes.

In reality, only 3% of the season has been played, and prudence dictates that it’s too soon to draw conclusions from anything. The Marlins have a better record than the Atlanta Braves, the Baltimore Orioles are tied for first in the AL East, and Ryan McMahon of the Colorado Rockies is on pace for 130 home runs.  Something tells me none of those things are going to be true come October.

However, there are times overreaction is not overreaction…and the Miami Marlins might be getting there with starting catcher Jorge Alfaro.

Front offices and fans alike love their numbers in MLB. While reaching a verdict on a player based on a five sample size would be foolish, reaching one based on an established track record is something else entirely. And if the Marlins are grading on a career curve…Jorge Alfaro could be in serious danger of failing the Saltalamacchia Test.

No, the Saltalamacchia Test is not about spelling. Although, it definitely would thin the heard a bit if you were trying to weed out the pretenders amongst those claiming to be Marlins diehards. What the Saltalamacchia test is about is the story of former Marlins catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and how quick the hook was brought out for him back in April of 2015.

By Marlins standards, his contract was massive: three years, $ 21 million. Yet despite that lofty investment, one bad season plus one bad month was enough to see him designated for assignment. Miami ate that entire contract, and handed the job over to Salty’s backup for the rest of the season. That’s the decision the organization made when a career worst 2014 was followed up with just nine games of poor play in 2015. Basically, the Saltalamacchia test boils down to whether or not one month is enough time to lose a starting job.

Fast forward to the present, where the 2021 Miami Marlins are off to the same 1-4 start the 2015 club was. Could Alfaro be in for a similar fate?

First, the similarities. Both were coming off career worst seasons, at least once you throw out a six game MLB debut for Alfaro in 2016 and a twelve game 2010 for Saltalamacchia on account of injury. Not only was 2020 a train wreck at the plate for Alfaro, but he was also benched for the playoffs because Mattingly had more confidence in backup Chad Wallach‘s ability to handle the staff. Wallach is still here, and is hitting better, even if the sample size is smaller. The same was true for the backup catcher in 2015.

As for the differences, there’s two major ones worth noting. Only one of which works in Alfaro’s favor.

The 2015 backup I’ve kept mentioning? That was J.T. Realmuto. While he obviously wasn’t the best catcher in baseball yet at the time, we did just learn this offseason that the Marlins had a chance to trade for Jake Arrieta in 2014 and balked when Chicago asked for Realmuto in return. Wallach is not Realmuto, and furthermore, catcher is widely regarded as the Achilles heel of the Marlins farm system. That’s in large part due to the fact that the young, up and coming prospect is Alfaro. So that’s something Alfaro has going for him the eight-year veteran Saltalamacchia did not- it’s easier to cut bait on a known quantity as opposed to a young player that could still have a lot of upside.

The other difference? Miami had $15 million reasons to want make Jarrod Saltalamacchia happen. Alfaro is costing Miami barely over 10% of that figure. As for the trade that brought him here? That’s already a win for the team when you look at how well Sixto Sanchez is regarded. Bottom-line, the investment is much smaller this time around.

So it only stands to reason that the leash might be shorter as well. If nothing else, it should be an interesting month to be a Miami Marlins catcher.