Would this Cincinnati Reds-Tampa Bay Rays trade work?

We continue our series on hypothetical trades that have been proposed by fans while the Major League Baseball lockout continues. In this installment, we take a look at a trade that could be fair for both the Cincinnati Reds and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Would this fan-proposed trade between the Cincinnati Reds and the Tampa Bay Rays involving starting pitcher Luis Castillo work in real life?

This series is based on an article that was published in The Athletic (subscription required) where former MLB general manager Jim Bowden gives his thoughts on MLB trades that are proposed to him by fans. In previous installments of this series, we have looked at a trade between the Detroit Tigers and Oakland A’s for Matt Chapman, a trade between the A’s and Seattle Mariners involving Chris Bassitt, and a swap sending Bryan Reynolds from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the San Diego Padres.

Today’s focus is on a fan-proposed deal that would send Luis Castillo from Cincinnati to Tampa Bay in exchange for second baseman/outfielder Vidal Bruján, right-hander Seth Johnson, and “another C+ minor-league pitcher.”

While that was the deal that was originally proposed in the article, Bowden wasn’t a fan of that swap, so he added that the Reds should counter the offer and ask for outfielder Josh Lowe and right-hander Taj Bradley if they really wanted to land Castillo. Bowden said that was “a fair deal for both sides,” but let’s dive into the numbers a little to see just how fair it is.

First, let’s start with Castillo, who has two years of team control remaining and will generate one of the biggest buzzes from potential suitors when the lockout ends.

Starting 33 games last season, Castillo ranks 10th in FanGraphs’ WAR calculations for pitchers over the last three campaigns combined at 10.4.

Castillo has been traded four times since being signed by the San Francisco Giants as an amateur free agent just before the end of 2011. He is expected to make around $8 million next season, so his arm will fit any rotation and any budget as well.

And what about the proposed return? Lowe played in two games last season for the Rays, going 1-for-1 at the plate. The 23-year-old ranks fourth on the team’s prospect list and was the 13th overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft. He slashed .291/.381/.535 with 22 home runs and 78 RBI in 402 Triple-A at-bats last season.

Bradley, meanwhile, is sixth on the Tampa Bay prospect list, and spent last season at Low-A and High-A. The 20-year-old went a combined 12-3 with a 1.83 ERA as opponents hit .181 against him. He struck out 123 in 103.1 innings.

So that’s two high-ranking prospects going from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for one pitcher who could be a game-changer in the race for the American League East title. If you were with the Reds, would you make this trade? If you were with the Rays, would this be too much to acquire a pitcher like Castillo? Let us know in the comments section below!