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MLB: Breaking down 4 of the game’s top pitching prospects

By Sean Basile

Apr 17, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Matt Brash (47) throws against the Houston Astros during the second inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Matt Brash (47) throws against the Houston Astros during the second inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 18, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 18, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

Nick Lodolo Cincinnati Reds

We just talked about the Reds’ top prospect in Hunter Greene. How about their number two prospect in Nick Lodolo?

As much as I love what I’ve seen from Greene, I actually might like Lodolo a little better. Certainly from a “staying healthy” perspective.

He is sitting about 94-95 on a two-seamer that he’s been pounding at a 59.3% rate while racking up above-average rpm at 2,319 … there’s a Monsters Inc. joke in there somewhere, but I can’t think of one right now.

The average sinker/two-seam spin rate is in the 2,200 range, so anything above 2,300 rpm is obviously very good.

Then we move on to his second pitch in the curveball that’s coming in at 2,701 rpm. Not as elite as Matt Brash, but still quite elite considering the average is in the 2,500 range.

Finally, his changeup spin is at 1,962, which is about 200 rpm above-average.

With Greene, I get a super hard fastball with well-above-average spin and the forecast of that spin increasing for every pitch pending health. With Lodolo here, I already have a guy who’s got top-level spin on three of his pitches.

Lodolo is in Greene’s shadow right now, but I think it’s fair to say he could one day surpass Greene and maybe even Tyler Mahle to become the Reds’ number one starter.

For both Greene and Lodolo, walks have been pretty good with a slight elevation (no real worries there as of now), velo and spin have been solid, but naturally they have taken some early lumps.

If I’m the Reds, I’m thrilled with these two guys to lead my pitching staff for the years to come.

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