The biggest surprise and disappointment for every National League team
Atlanta Braves
Surprise: Kyle Wright
Atlanta needed some more guys in the rotation and boy, did they find a good one in Kyle Wright. He has slotted in fantastically well this year with a 2.68 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 1.3 fWAR after nine starts. He has finally found a stable spot in the rotation after going up and down for a few seasons, and it has worked out for both Wright and the Braves. Hopefully, they will have a three-headed monster ready for the playoffs when Mike Soroka comes back.
Disappointment: Charlie Morton
Morton made the most out of his late-career run before hitting a wall this season. It was bound to happen some time. His walks are higher and strikeouts lower while allowing more hits and home runs. A 5.28 ERA and 4.51 FIP with xFIP and SIERA look pretty similar. He has pitched better in May, so hopefully that is a sign he is starting to turn it around.
Ian Anderson has not pitched great this year. Still, it is more on par with his expected stats and SIERA and less of a drop, so Morton struggling is a more notable disappointment.
Miami Marlins
Surprise: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Pablo López has also been a wonderful surprise for the Marlins, but Jazz’s jump to a star level has been much larger than Pablo’s. Chisholm has gone from a .728 OPS, 98 WRC+, and 2.0 fWAR in total last season to now hitting to the tune of a .921 OPS, 156 WRC+, and 1.9 fWAR in just 34 games. His fielding by DRS and UZR standards hasn’t been good, but OAA loves him. Jazz has not just exceeded expectations; he has blown them out of the water.
Disappointment: Trevor Rogers
There are a few options here with Rogers, Avisail Garcia, Jesus Sanchez, and even Elieser Hernandez. However, Garcia appears to be underperforming, and for Sanchez and Hernandez, I don’t view their drop the same as Trevor’s.
Rogers had over 4 fWAR last season with a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP, with over 10 K/9 and only about 3 BB/9. Expected stats predicted some regression, but not this much. It is mainly the fastball getting hit so bad, so if he can adjust his location or mix, that could turn things around.
New York Mets
Surprise: Jeff McNeil
The Flying Squirrel is back! After a rough 2021, McNeil appears to be back to the level of player we have come to expect. He has already surpassed his fWAR from last season, now sitting at 1.8. He has improved his .679 OPS and 93 WRC+ to being at .829 and 141, the second-highest WRC+ on the team behind Brandon Nimmo. The Mets look like one of the best teams in baseball, and McNeil has been a big reason behind their success.
Disappointment: Eduardo Escobar
It was actually hard finding someone for the Mets. J.D. Davis and Bassitt haven’t been great, but their underlying numbers look promising. Starling Marte regressed from last season but it looks like an outlier compared to most of his career.
That leaves Escobar, who looks like he is hitting the same as last year if you just go by WRC+. But in this case, that just means he is hitting about the same compared to the league average. Overall, he is still hitting worse compared to last season with a .692 OPS, and expected numbers are about the same.
Philadelphia Phillies
Surprise: Alec Bohm
I also considered Kyle Gibson for this as he has pitched better than usual. However, I feel like Bohm bouncing back is a bigger surprise and much more needed for this team. Bohm is has moved up his .647 OPS to .7252 this season which might not seem that great. However, given the league’s state with many players struggling offensively, it is probably more impressive than you think. Along with that, if his expected stats are correct, he could get even better throughout the season.
Disappointment: Ranger Suárez
He was very successful last season, whether he was a starter or coming out of the bullpen. Through 12 starts, he had a 1.51 ERA and 2.35 FIP, but 2022 has been a different story. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, and he has allowed more hard contact. Locating his pitches seems like the most significant issue. His sinker has caught too much of the middle of the zone, and his changeup missing too much of the zone in general. If he can turn it around, this rotation looks like one of the more well-rounded ones in baseball.
Washington Nationals
Surprise: Yadiel Hernández
Where the heck did this guy come from? Hernández is 34 years old, and coming off his rookie season in 2021. He has improved from last season, improving his slash line numbers from .273/.329/413 to .307/.350/.472. Expected numbers for this season look on par, so this level of play should continue. Given his age and the current situation of the Nationals, he could be a trade piece at the deadline.
Young prospect Keibert Ruiz has also been good, but I feel like people expected that from him, so I went with Hernández instead.
Disappointment: Patrick Corbin
Corbin has been on this level of play for a while now, and it has already been disappointing. Still, the lack of any turnaround since 2020 is disheartening. I dove into what as happened to Corbin on my YouTube channel, which you can check out here. A change of scenery could be the only thing to try and get a bounce back from him. Washington will need a lot of luck to find anyone interested in taking on that contract.
Chicago Cubs
Surprise: David Robertson
I tried to avoid doing relievers as much as possible because it is so much in their nature to have a lot of peaks and valleys. Robertson, I feel, is an exception as, before this season, he had only pitched about 19 innings since 2018. He has been just like his former self with a 2.08 ERA and 2.79 FIP, and almost a 12 K/9. With the Cubs’ current losing record, he could be an exciting trade piece at the deadline to help a contender.
Ian Happ and Justin Steele I also looked at, but I loved the comeback story for Robertson.
Disappointment: Frank Schwindel
Frank the Tank looks like he is running on fumes. Anyone who dove into his expected numbers from last season probably saw his hot streak ending but not to flame out this badly. He has started to pick it up a little more in May, but still worse than I had hoped. He would be a solid player on the roster if he just matches his expected slash line from last year of .272/.332/.454.
Cincinnati Reds
Surprise: Brandon Drury
Drury has been in the league since 2015, and it seems like he might have finally figured it out at the plate. He has been more disciplined than he has in the past and has been able to barrel up a lot more. His barrel% this year is sitting at 12%, 5% higher than his career average, which ties into his higher launch angle at 14 degrees. Drury is 29, and on his last year of team control, so he is probably a trade asset on a struggling Reds team.
Some bullpen pieces were also doing well, along with Tyler Stephenson. However, I think everyone was expecting him to do well. Plus, his expected numbers predict some regression coming in the future.
Disappointment: Mike Moustakas
Tyler Mahle was an option for tanking his trade value. Nick Senzel as well, given his previous hype and poor performance at the plate.
However, Moose is the biggest one to me, coming off a lousy season and being just as bad. Don’t let the 90 WRC+ fool you. That is adjusted to the league struggling overall, making him closer to the league average even though he hasn’t improved. He actually looks worse. Expected numbers put him with a slash line around .180/.266/.291. And he is still under contract for next year at 18 million.
Milwaukee Brewers
Surprise: Eric Lauer
As if the Brewers needed more stud starting pitchers, Lauer has a 2.31 ERA, 3.57 FIP with an xFIP of 3.24 and 3.07 SIERA. These astounding numbers are coming from his improved strikeout and walk numbers sitting at 10.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, up from 8.8 and 3.1. Between him, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and an improved Adrian Houser, this rotation could be the best in baseball. They are going to need Lauer now with Peralta and Woodruff out with injuries.
Rowdy Tellez has also found his stroke at the plate, but I always saw that in him. I don’t think people expected this jump from Lauer.
Disappointment: Lorenzo Cain
Well, Cain has started to fully show his age now. The 36-year-old is currently sitting with.524 OPS and 51 WRC+ making him one of the worst hitters in MLB. Baseball Savant’s OAA still loves his defense, rating him as one of the better defenders in the outfield. However, being that much of a negative at the plate makes it difficult to play him outside of being a fourth outfielder, defensive replacement, or pinch-runner.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Surprise: Michael Chavis
There are a few options for the Pirates between Chavis, Daniel Vogelbach, and José Quintana. But Vogelbach has been a decent hitter, and Chavis’ improvement is more impactful to the team than Quintana.
Michael Chavis is only 26 and has three years left of team control. This is all pretty interesting for the Pirates, who need good young talent. Chavis has a .793 OPS and 120 WRC+, and based on expected numbers, that should be sustainable.
Disappointment: Bryan Reynolds
Who else could you really pick? All the interest and trade value he had in the offseason is probably gone now. I did not want them to trade Reynolds, hoping they would keep him to lead the team as they hopefully break their rebuild. A .683 OPS compared to last season’s .912 with little hope from expected numbers that it will get much better. May has been good to him, so hopefully, that will continue through the rest of the season.
St. Louis Cardinals
Surprise: Tommy Edman
Due to a scorching start at the plate, Edman is third in bWAR at 2.9 and 10th in fWAR at 2.1. His defense and baserunning were already stellar, but a .785 OPS and 129 WRC+ make him one of the most valuable players in baseball. He has started to cool down in May, but he would be a regular All-Star if he could maintain around a .800 OPS.
Miles Mikolas has also had a fantastic comeback season. Albert Pujols should also be mentioned for being a decent hitter in his potential final season.
Disappointment: Tyler O’Neill
One of the biggest disappointments this season in general. O’Neill only has two home runs through 32 games with a .552 OPS. Through the first two months last season, O’Neill had 12 home runs. He is not getting the results he should on fastballs, making terrible contact on breaking pitches, and can’t hit off-speed. His defense has still been solid, but St. Louis needs his bat to get back for this team to be a big-time contender.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Surprise: Daulton Varsho
Varsho has come out this year and been one of the best all-around players in baseball. A catcher turned outfielder has become one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball and is in the 74th percentile for sprint speed. He has just as good at the plate with a .802 OPS and 123 WRC+, turning it up over the past month. Arizona could have one of the best outfields in baseball in a few years between himself, Alek Thomas, and Corbin Carroll.
Josh Rojas has also been great, but has only played 20 games due to injuries.
Disappointment: Seth Beer
The one thing Seth Beer has been known for as a prospect is his superior hitting ability. Through 27 games this year, it had not come through. If he can turn it around, he could be a great future piece to help push this lineup even further. He was sent down, and through 11 Triple-A games, he has six extra-base hits, including three home runs for a .976 OPS and 140 WRC+. Hopefully, he can get his swing right and come back up soon to start raking baseballs in the majors.
I did consider Ketel Marte, but he has started to turn it up more in May, hopefully confirming he is back on track.
Colorado Rockies
Surprise: C.J. Cron
Cron is on pace for the best season of his career. He is currently tied for 22nd in the league for WRC+ at 144 and a .933 OPS for 10th in the league. He has the fifth-highest fWAR among qualified first basemen at 1.4 and is tied for fourth in baseball for home runs at 13. Many good players are in the same position, so don’t let them overshadow how good Cron has been.
Yonathan Daza has also been great for the Rockies and could easily be put in this position instead.
Disappointment: Elias Díaz
Germán Márquez has not been as good this season, but his xFIP and SIERA still look good. I hoped Ryan McMahon would do better at the plate, but his underlying numbers look okay.
That brings us to Elias Díaz, a pretty solid hitter last year for a catcher with 18 doubles and 18 home runs for a .774 OPS. That has not carried over to this season with just a .572 OPS and a worse strikeout and walk rate. He is chasing more at pitches than last year, up to 32% from 27%. Hopefully, if Díaz is more disciplined, he will make better contact and become a solid hitting catcher again.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Surprise: Tyler Anderson
A few names could get put here, such as Mookie Betts, Tony Gonsolin, or Edwin Rios, but Tyler Anderson gets my vote. He has a career of 4.49 ERA and 4.35 FIP, with expected numbers agreeing with that production level. 2022 has been different, with a 2.90 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA. Anderson has leaned on his changeup more, and it has done him wonders with opponents only having a .136 SLG and .200 xSLG on the pitch. Leave it to the Dodgers to find another diamond in the rough.
Disappointment: Max Muncy
At times, Muncy has looked like one of the best, if not the best first baseman in all of baseball. Almost a .900 OPS last year with 4.8 fWAR and 36 home runs. He is still very disciplined with a 20% walk rate, but his power has been completely zapped. His average exit velocity has dropped by four miles per hour to 87, and his barrel rate has fallen 6%. In conjunction with a lower line drive rate and higher fly ball rate, Muncy currently looks like a shell of his former self.
San Diego Padres
Surprise: Joe Musgrove
For the past couple of seasons, Joe has been a great pitcher. In 2022, he seems to have turned it up another notch. His ERA and FIP are currently sit at 1.86 and 2.71, with even his xFIP and SIERA coming in lower than last season. His strikeouts are slightly down, but he has improved his walks, bringing it down to under 2 BB/9. He uses his slider more, and his general chase rate is one of the best in the majors at 35% and in the 92nd percentile.
Manny Machado looks like an MVP candidate through two months, but expected stats are predicting some regression.
Disappointment: Trent Grisham
After a down year last season, Grisham has doubled down and been even worse in 2022. His 2021 slash line of .242/.327/.413 looks impeccable compared to this year’s .160/.263/.267 for just a .530 OPS. His sprint speed is still in the 93rd percentile, and he is still an above-average defender. Despite his discipline, which has still been remarkable, his offense makes him hard to play right now.
Austin Nola has also had a rough time with the bat this year, but expected numbers still see him progressing more than Grisham.
San Francisco Giants
Surprise: Joc Pederson
We all know how much power Joc Pederson has; we are just finally seeing it at full force, with 11 home runs in 39 games, including three in one game against the Mets. On the season, he has a .932 OPS and 160 WRC+, the 16th highest WRC+ for players with at least 100 plate appearances. All of this damage has basically been against lefties, but it is making him one of the best platoon bats in baseball.
Jakob Junis has also been outstanding this season, and if he carried more of his relief success over to his starts, he could have been it for me.
Next. 1 little-known potential All-Star from each team. dark
Disappointment: Brandon Crawford
Wow … that extension is not looking good right now. Crawdaddy has returned to his 2017 to 2019 form at the plate after coming off his best season as an MLB player by far. I don’t know if everyone expected the same level of hitting, but we hoped he would at least put up numbers similar to 2020. A lower exit velocity and sweet-spot percentage are probably the main culprits. His poor hitting has been a shot to the gut for a team looking to contend. Always be careful of contract seasons, folks!