MLB: Picking the top 5 rotations coming into the 2023 season

After a wild offseason with big names like Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander finding new teams, which teams now own the best starting rotations in baseball?

Let’s break down our top five starting rotations coming into the 2023 MLB season.

5. Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi/Nate Pearson

The Blue Jays have invested over $420 million in their starting rotation over the last four offseasons, transforming this group into a World Series caliber pitching staff. The rotation is led by Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, both of whom were sensational last year. Gausman had a career season, leading all AL starters in FIP (2.38) and WAR (5.7). Manoah built on his incredible rookie season, earning his first All-Star appearance, while finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. Manoah posted a 2.24 ERA over 196 innings of work, giving him the second-lowest ERA of an AL pitcher in an age 24 season or younger.

Free agent signing Chris Bassitt will join this group, becoming yet another elite right-handed starter in this rotation after signing a three-year contract worth $63 million this offseason. Often overlooked, Bassitt had his third consecutive season with a sub-3.50 ERA last year, earning the number three spot in a loaded Mets rotation last year.

It was a disappointing year for Jose Berrios, who received a seven-year, $131 million extension last offseason. While Berrios had occasional quality starts, he was arguably the most disappointing starter last season. He finished with a 5.23 ERA over 172 innings, with Toronto deciding against starting him in the postseason. Regardless, I think Berrios is just too good to have back-to-back awful seasons.

With the spotlight directed towards Manoah and Gausman, I think Berrios will bounce back this year. Yusei Kikuchi rounds out this rotation in the five spot, posting less-than ideal numbers similar to Berrios last year. I’m not as sold on Kikuchi, who has posted statistically below-average numbers every season. Last year was Kikuchi’s worst season in terms of ERA+, finishing at 75 (league average is 100).

Former top pitching prospect Nate Pearson is someone who Toronto could call on if Kikuchi continues to struggle. The 26 year-old righty is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but could serve as a solid depth piece in this loaded rotation.

Toronto has done everything they can to put themselves in a winning position in the AL East, establishing themselves with a true playoff-contending rotation. While the rotation is loaded at the top, can its depth hold up throughout the course of the season?

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Jeffery Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Zach Eflin

2022 was Shane McClanahan’s year, with McClanahan truly solidifying himself as a number one starter in this league, posting a 2.54 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over 166 innings. Paired with McClanhan is the 6-foot-8 righty Tyler Glasnow, who is now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. The Rays’ patience in Glasnow’s return was rewarded, with Glasnow posting five scoreless innings in his lone playoff start against the Cleveland Guardians. While Glasnow is truly elite, his injury history can’t be ignored. He’s yet to throw more than 150 innings in a season, a number he must surpass if he wants to helps Tampa make a deep postseason run.

After these two heavyweights we have Jeffery Springs, a lefty who has flourished under the Tampa Bay coaching staff. Springs came over in a trade from Boston following a 2020 season where he posted an abysmal 7.08 ERA. Springs transformed his numbers just two years later, posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 innings this year. Springs is yet another Rays success story. Thanks to analytics, pitching strategy, and coaching, he has turned himself into a valuable rotation piece. He’ll be a key part of this rotation moving forward after receiving a four-year, $31 million extension this offseason. 

Drew Rasmussen is another trade acquisition, coming from Milwaukee in the Willy Adames trade. Like most Rays pitchers, Rasmussen is a unique case for a starter. He doesn’t usually go deep into games like a conventional starter, but is very effective when facing the lineup once or twice through the order. Establishing the cutter/fastball combo is what truly made Rasmussen elite last season. The two pitch values combined for a 19.2 runs above average (per FanGraphs), making it one of the best combos in the league.

The addition of Zach Eflin is what makes this rotation truly deep, who Tampa signed to a three-year, $40 million contract over this offseason. Eflin pitched key innings for Philadelphia in the playoffs, posting a respectable 3.38 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 10 plus innings. By all means, Eflin is overqualified as a number five option … even for a playoff-contending team.

Through analytics and trades, the Tampa Bay Rays have built a truly formidable starting rotation.

3. New York Mets

Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, Tylor Megill/Carlos Carrasco

Isn’t it amazing how a team can lose Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, yet still maintain one of the best rotations in the MLB ? Mets fans were crushed after losing deGrom to free agency, yet the front office responded quickly by signing reigning AL Cy Young Winner Justin Verlander to a two-year deal. Paired with Max Scherzer , the Mets now have two future Hall of Famers at the top of their rotation, leaving fans curious to see how these two veteran will hold up over the course of a 162 game season.

Another new face in this rotation will be Kodai Senga, who is perhaps the most intriguing starter entering the 2023 season. The former NPB Superstar posted a 2.59 ERA over 1,000-plus innings, earning him a five-year, $75 million deal with the Mets.

Senga’s arsenal features a 97-98 mph fastball along with a forkball which hitters have continually struggled with, making him a strong contender for NL Rookie of the Year.

The Mets also added Jose Quintana on a two-year deal this offseason, providing additional depth to this loaded rotation. Last year was a bounce-back season for Quintana, serving as a stellar deadline acquisition for the St. Louis Cardinals. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA in 63 innings with St. Louis, including five scoreless innings in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card.

Tylor Megill and Carlos Carrasco are the anchors of this rotation, with Carrasco reportedly still the subject of trade talks. With lefty David Peterson also in the mix for innings, many Mets fans are wondering where Carrasco fits into this rotation. As for Megill, some anticipate he may have a bullpen role, but I heavily disagree. At 27, Megill is the youngest arm on this veteran staff, and I think New York will want him to establish himself as a reliable rotation option for years to come. He certainly has the arsenal to prove it.

Overall, a huge tip of the cap to the Mets front office. It’s an incredible accomplishment to somehow band together a top five rotation despite losing both deGrom and Bassitt.

2. Houston Astros

Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy/Hunter Brown

It’s amazing how you can lose both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, yet still maintain one of the best rotations in baseball.

Despite the recent loss of Verlander, the Astros still have arguably the best rotation in the game. The group is headlined by Framber Valdez and Christian Javier, both of whom made incredible strides last year. Valdez made MLB history last season, throwing 25 consecutive quality starts, breaking Jacob deGrom’s previous record of 24. Valdez finished the 2022 season at 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting, earning him his first All-Star appearance. Meanwhile, Javier was incredible in the 2022 postseason, posting a 0.71 ERA over 12.2 innings. Javier pitched a career-high 144 innings this year, lowering his ERA to a career-low of 2.54. It’s no surprise he’s MLB.com’s preseason pick to be the AL Cy Young winner.

Similar to Tyler Glasnow, Lance McCullers Jr. came back late in the regular season, posting a terrific 2.27 ERA over 47 innings. McCullers did have a rocky postseason, most notably in Game 3 of the World Series where he surrendered five homers in just 4.1 innings pitched.

It was rather a quiet postseason for Luis Garcia, who received just over 5.2 innings during this postseason. The former AL ROY candidate is a testament to just how deep this pitching staff is. With Verlander gone, it’s time for Garcia to take the next step and pitch some important playoff innings.

Another guy who is fully capable of this role is the ever-reliable veteran Jose Urquidy, who would likely be a top three starter on most ball clubs. However, in this deep group, he’s in the number five spot. While Urquidy isn’t flashy, he’s incredibly consistent and durable.

By far the most intriguing pitcher on this staff is rookie Hunter Brown.

The top prospect displayed incredible stuff in his September call-up, showcasing a 97-98 mph rising fastball, paired with a nasty 12-6 curve. What exactly will Brown’s role be? Will he be able to earn starts and compete for innings within this deep group or will we see him out the bullpen like we did this postseason?

The Houston Astros pitching staff is truly a machine. Even after losing Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and Gerrit Cole, they’ve still managed to maintain a World Series-caliber rotation.