MLB division previews: AL Central

The 2023 season marks yet another year where the AL Central is completely up for grabs, with three teams legitimately in the hunt for the division title.

Let’s take a deep dive into how the AL Central shapes out for the 2023 season.

AL Central preview: 5. Kansas City Royals

We’re now several years into the Royals rebuild, with Kansas City still years away from contention. Perhaps we’re starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The young lineup is highlighted by Bobby Witt Jr., M.J. Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino, all proven young studs with big league success. Then you have another group of young, highly-touted prospects like Nick Pratto, Drew Waters, Michael Massey, and Edward Olivares who will have to prove themselves this year. If a few of these guys can establish themselves as consistent MLB-caliber players, the Royals will have a nice group of pieces to build around. Most importantly, Kansas City has found a future franchise player in Bobby Witt Jr. The 22-year-old had a monster rookie season, notching 20 homers, and 57 overall extra base hits.

Brady Singer highlights a starting pitching staff that still has a very long way to go. After coming back from Triple A on May 17, Singer posted a 2.85 ERA over 23 starts. Singer became the first Royals pitcher to win 10 games last season, striking out 150 batters over 153 innings. In fact, Singer is really the sole young arm that Royals fans can look forward to seeing in the future. The  rest of the rotation consists of veterans like Zach Greinke, Jordan Lyles, and Ryan Yarbrough that make this awfully below average. These three vets, along with Brad Keller and Jonathan Heasley, signify the glaring weakness of starting pitching that has to improve moving forward.

Aside from Singer, every other starter on this staff is heavily below average. I didn’t understand the signing of Jordan Lyles. Signing a guy who has never had an ERA below 4.10 to a multi-year deal is just foolish.

This year marks yet another year of investment for KC; investing in the farm and young MLB talent. Let’s not forget it’s been a very long time (probably 2016) since this team has been remotely close to contending. Sooner or later, this team must start spending money and acquiring more pieces if they are interested in competing in the Wild Card hunt.

AL Central preview: 4. Detroit Tigers

By all accounts, last year was an unmitigated disaster for Detroit. After investing more than $100 million in free agency, Detroit went from a 77-85 record in 2021 to 66-95 in 2022. Detroit did virtually nothing to improve a lineup that finished dead last in runs per game at 3.44.

It’ll be up to Javy Baez to bounce back from one of the worst seasons of his career, finishing with a 90 wRC+* last season. In fact, just about everyone in this lineup will have to bounce back. It starts with former number one overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who was clearly not ready for the big leagues. The 23-year-old posted a brutal stat line, batting .200 and hitting just eight home runs. Riley Greene, another highly touted prospect, was arguably the one bright spot in the lineup last season. In 418 at-bats, Greene finished with a 98 wRC+*, while showcasing elite defense in center field. It’s crucial that Greene takes another big step this year, with Detroit desperately in need of a core to build around. Austin Meadows and Jonathan Schoop are two quality and reliable MLB players who were anything but that last season. Meadows was hurt most the season, and Schoop had the worst statistical season of his career. The two while have to turn it around, as they will be relied upon for heavy production in this weak lineup. Newcomers Matt Vierling and Nick Maton were acquired in the Gregory Soto trade; it’s looking as if both will immediately be plugged into this lineup. Vierling provides an average bat with incredible defensive versatility, while Maton looked very promising in his second year with the Phillies. While this lineup is still pretty ugly, at least Tigers fans will be able to enjoy future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera play in navy blue for potentially his last season.

The rotation remains full of question marks. Eduardo Rodriguez was brought in to be the ace of this staff, signing a five-year, $77 million deal last offseason. After just eight starts, Rodriguez left the team for personal reasons. He returned in late August, finishing the season with a 4.02 ERA. Casey Mize pitched just 10 innings before being shut down for Tommy John surgery. It’s unclear when he will return, but there’s no denying that the former number one pick is quite injury-prone. Spencer Turnbull and Tarik Skubal are the highlights of this rotation, both of whom are likely to start the season on the IL. Turnbull is coming off Tommy John in 2020, where he posted a strong 2.88 ERA in nine starts before surgery. Skubal broke out last season, finishing with a 3.52 ERA over 117 innings before being shut down for flexor tendon surgery. At 26, Skubal is far and away the most valuable young pitcher on this staff. Matt Manning is another strong young arm to look out for on this staff. The 25-year-old had a similar 3.43 ERA in 12 starts before being forearm issues. Aside from injuries, both Skubal and Manning have shown flashes of elite potential in their young big league careers. Veterans Matt Boyd and Michael Lorenzen will join the rotation as strong depth pieces, both on one-year deals with the ability to be dealt at the trade deadline. Depth in a starting rotation is always great, but it’s not very meaningful when a team lacks top tier starting pitching. While Detroit has potential elite starters, nothing yet has been consistently proven.

The bullpen, the strength of Detroit last year, has lost its best piece, trading away lefty closer Gregory Soto. With Andrew Chafin, Soto, and Michael Fulmer all gone, it’s hard to know what to expect from this group.

Detroit is an awfully tough spot right now, but honestly can things get much worse than last season?

* wRC+ is an advanced offensive metric that measures offensive production. It is measured on a 100 point scale, with 100 being the league average. Anything above or below 100 is above or below average.

AL Central preview: 3. Chicago White Sox

2022 was a year plagued with injuries, inconsistencies, and underperformance from the White Sox. Chicago must turn around all of these struggles if they wish to contend, and they’ll have to do it without their franchise player Jose Abreu, who signed with Houston in the offseason. It’s a given fact that Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal are all really solid MLB players. While this is true, they all have problems staying healthy. Why expect that to change this year? Abreu was the sole, consistent elite producer in this lineup, and now he is gone. The top of the order will be highlighted by shortstop Tim Anderson and new free agent acquisition Andrew Benintendi, the White Sox marquee signing over the offseason. While it’s clear Benintendi is an excellent contact hitter, it’s no secret his power numbers are lacking. Over his entire career, Benintendi has had just one season where he’s hit 20 homers (2017). I’m just not sure if Benintendi provides enough consistent offensive production to be earning $75 million over the next five years. Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets will also have to step up. The two young prospects have meshed nicely into big league action, proving they can produce at a high level with solid offensive numbers. Overall, it’s just hard to trust a lineup with so many injury-prone pieces. Sure, if this lineup can stay healthy I think they could potentially compete for the division. But will it stay healthy? Based on past seasons, the answer would be no.

If Chicago wishes to contend, the starting rotation must be a strength for this team. Dylan Cease is now a proven elite starter after his 2022 season, finishing second in AL Cy Young voting. Cease will look to continue his dominance and lead a rotation that is full of question marks. Lance Lynn missed the first few weeks of last season and didn’t look the same. He lost a full mph on his fastball (94-93) and, in turn, his arsenal was much more ineffective. Now 35, I highly doubt we will see the Cy Young contending version of Lynn we saw in prior years. It’s up to Michael Kopech to fill this void, who is fully capable of becoming a top three starter on a playoff team. Kopech achieved career numbers while pitching a career-high of 119 innings, proving he can be successful with a starter’s workload. It was a disappointing year for Lucas Giolito, whose ERA rose almost a full point and half last season. Similar to Lynn, Giolito’s fastball velocity dropped 1.3 MPH (94-92.7), in turn bringing down the effectiveness of his whole arsenal. Along with Lynn, the two must bounce back for this rotation to be dominant. The back-end of the rotation remains in question, with Mike Clevinger currently under investigation for alleged domestic violence and child abuse. If Clevinger is unable to pitch, it’s possible righty Reynaldo Lopez could take his place. Lopez has starting experience, and posted a solid 2.72 ERA as a reliever last year. Aside from Lopez, the team is virtually devoid of starting pitching depth. This is a huge problem, considering Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech, and Mike Clevinger all missed time due to arm problems last season.

The bullpen is above-average, highlighted with quality relievers such as Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Jake Diekman and Aaron Bummer. However, their pen will be missing its most valuable piece, closer Liam Hendriks, who was recently diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. We wish the best for Hendriks in his recovery, who is truly an electrifying player and competitor in our game. It’s really pretty simple.

Last year, Chicago was a .500 team and couldn’t stay healthy. The same exact narrative bodes for this year. This is a team that struggles to stay healthy and no longer has their best player in Jose Abreu. It’s hard to see this working out well.

AL Central preview: 2. Cleveland Guardians

Defying all expectations last year, the Guardians won their first division title since 2018 while also achieving a commendable postseason run. While some can argue they benefited from awful divisional counterparts, there’s no doubt the front office has put together a solid roster.

It all starts with the starting rotation, which has established itself with an elite top three that competed well in October. Shane Bieber will look to capture his second Cy Young Award, coming off another stellar season. Despite losing about 1.5 mph on his fastball velocity, Bieber still dominated, posting a 2.88 ERA over 200 innings. Bieber’s slider had a pitch value of 15.8 runs above average, leading all MLB starters. Triston McKenzie had his best season last year, lowering his ERA a full two points (2.95) while achieving a career-high in innings pitched. Is it safe to say the Guardians won the Mike Clevinger trade? Along with Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill was another valuable player the Guardians acquired in the Clevinger deal, making it even more gruesome for Padres fans to think about. The right-handed starter completed his second straight regular season with a sub 3.40 ERA. Despite the strong regular season, Quantrill struggled in the postseason, finishing with a 5.40 ERA in two playoff starts. While Cleveland has the starting trio in the division, the bottom half of the rotation remains a big question mark. Both Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac posted 4.30+ ERAs last year, with Civale struggling in his lone playoff start. Though this is a huge red flag, we do have to consider who else could potentially be in the picture for this rotation. It’s a given fact that  Cleveland is incredibly good at manufacturing elite starting pitchers. Let’s remember this is a team that once had Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco as part of the same staff. While none of these pitchers still remain, Cleveland still has a strong and youthful rotation. It’s clear this organization can consistently cultivate quality starting pitching. It will be foolish to assume we won’t see some form of further development in the starting rotation this year.

As for the bullpen, it comes in as one of the league’s best, led by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. During the Guardians postseason run, the bullpen eclipsed an 1.08 ERA, finishing third amongst all postseason teams. It wasn’t Clase who purely dominated. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Eli Morgan, and Enyel De Los Santos all proved they were capable of high leverage postseason situations. This talented group will play a key part in helping Cleveland defend their division title.

The bulk of the lineup’s production hinges on Jose Ramirez, arguably the most underrated player in the game. Ramirez is coming off another monster season posting a 139 wRC+, virtually carrying the offense through the regular and postseason. The Guardians deserve their due credit for patching up some holes, as they improved at the catching and first base by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino during the offseason. Bell and Zunino are both tenured veterans who will bring power and experience to this rather young lineup. Even with these strong additions, I still have my doubts. Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario, and Josh Naylor all had career years last season. In addition, Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzales had very impressive rookie seasons. While I’m not saying all of these players will regress, I do have a hard time believing they can all repeat such incredible performances.

The lineup is so dependent on the production of Ramirez. If Ramirez goes down or slumps, the offensive production of this team is in major jeopardy. For many players in this lineup, it’s time to establish consistency and prove they can repeat career-high performances we saw last season. If not, Cleveland may not be able to defend their division title.