Apr 26, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Jack Suwinski (65) hits a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
If it wasn’t for the Tampa Bay Rays getting off to a historic start to the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates would likely be the most talked about team in the Major Leagues so far this season. After losing 100 games last season, the Pirates are now 17-8 after beating the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 on Wednesday.
Their great start can be attributed to a strong effort on both sides of the ball. Going into Wednesday, they had a top 10 offense in terms of runs and OPS, and a top 10 pitching staff in terms of ERA.
We’ve seen the good (beating up on the Colorado Rockies 14-3 twice in the same series), the bad (blowing a 7-2 lead with shaky defense and pitching against the Dodgers) and the ugly (losing Oneil Cruz to a long-term ankle injury), so now is a good time to look at how sustainable this hot start to the season is.
Diving into what was worked for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023
Hot offensive numbers to start the season
Going into Wednesday’s game with the Dodgers, the Pirates had six players with at least 20 at-bats and an OPS over .850. Granted, 20 at-bats is practically nothing in terms of sample size, but it goes to show how hot the bats have been so far and how early it still is.
Jack Suwinski (52 at-bats, 1.020 OPS) and Connor Joe (61 at-bats, 1.013) are perhaps the two most impressive hot starters. We obviously don’t expect either of them to finish the season with an OPS this high, but it doesn’t mean that they can’t both be productive hitters this season. According to Statcast, Suwinski is currently in the top 10% in the MLB in terms of average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage and walk percentage. On the other hand, Joe is in the top 8% in terms of hard-hit percentage and weighted on-base percentage. While they won’t finish the season as MVP-candidate hitters, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if both can finish with an OPS over .800.
The Pirates leaders, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, have also done their part in bigger sample sizes so far. Reynolds, who recently signed a contract extension, currently has an .872 OPS, spearheaded by his .553 slugging percentage so far this season. Out of all the Pirates hitters, his OPS is the most likely to stick. He’s finished two seasons with an OPS over .880, and his current .319 OBP is much lower than his .359 career average.
McCutchen, on the other hand, has seen a career resurgence to start the season, perhaps putting together his best season since he was last in Pittsburgh. He went into Wednesday with an .898 OPS and three steals to start the season. According to Statcast, his expected stats don’t look too different than his age-30 season, his last season with the Pirates where he finished with an .849 OPS.
While we might expect his numbers so far this season to regress, it isn’t that far-fetched to think that McCutchen could have his best season since he was last with the Pirates. Just think of the resurgence that Albert Pujols had with the Cardinals last season.
All things considered, while the Pirates offense has gotten off to an impressive start and should be better than advertised going into the season, some players are due for some regression.
Apr 25, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Johan Oviedo (24) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
Strong starting pitching
The Pirates rotation has also looked strong to start the season. Led by Mitch Keller (3.64 ERA) and Johan Oviedo (3.03 ERA), the starters have combined for a 3.92 ERA early on. Keller and Oviedo are joined by youngster Roansy Contreras (3.58 ERA), veteran Vince Velasquez (3.76 ERA), and veteran’s veteran Rich Hill (4.85 ERA).
Keller and Oviedo should be reliable arms going forward barring injury. Keller finished last season with a 3.94 ERA, pitching especially well through the summer of 2022. There is a bit of reason for concern, however, as his current 21.7% hard-hit percentage is in the top 4% in the majors, way ahead of his previous career high, and he has a 4.17 expected ERA. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Keller have a career-best season at age 27, that hard-hit rate will likely regress to the 30-35% range.
On the other hand, the Pirates might have a legitimate breakout in Oviedo. His 3.03 ERA is actually higher than his 2.71 expected ERA, and none of his Statcast numbers suggest a major regression is coming. His lack of a track record as a starting pitcher in the majors raises concerns about his ability to sustain this over the course of a season, but Oviedo should be one to watch going forward.
Like Oviedo, Contreras is another young arm that could be breaking out for the Pirates. His last start saw him shoutout the Dodgers over 6.0 innings, lowering his ERA to 3.58. While Statcast hasn’t updated after this past start (at the time of this writing), he went into it with a 35.9% hard-hit percentage, 10% lower than last season. While his strikeout rate has gone down every year in the majors, this may be attributed to him pitching to contact rather than trying to strike everybody out.
In Velasquez and Hill, you kind of know what you’re going to get. We have years of data to go off of on each, and its hard to see either of them having any sort of breakout at this point. If they can both eat up innings while keeping their ERAs in the 4-5 range, they could help the Pirates in having an above-average starting rotation in 2023.
Apr 26, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Dauri Moreta (36) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
Questionable bullpen
While the Pirates have one of the better bullpen arms in the MLB in David Bednar, the rest of the bullpen is questionable at best. Not much needs to be said about Bednar because we know what to expect. Bednar has a career 2.82 ERA with 179 strikeouts in 140.2 innings, and he’s likely going to top the 19 saves he had last season.
The other main reliever the Pirates have relied on this season is Colin Holderman. For the most part, he’s lived up to his name, already racking up eight holds in 11 appearances. However, his last appearance saw him blow the game for the Pirates against the Dodgers, giving up three runs in an 8-7 loss. It’s very hard to predict what we’re going to get from Holderman going forward, but the Pirates will hope that he can be a reliable setup man going forward.
In fact, it’s hard to predict what any of the bullpen arms will provide for Pittsburgh given the lack of a track record (or questionable track record) that all of them have. In order for the Pirates to have a chance to make the playoffs, at least a few of the names outside of Bednar will have to step up as reliable options down the stretch.
Next. Checking in on the rest of the NL Central. dark
