Call to the pen
Fansided

Pittsburgh Pirates: Looking into whether or not the 2023 start is legitimate

By Andrew Ringer

Apr 26, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Jack Suwinski (65) hits a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 26, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Jack Suwinski (65) hits a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
1 of 3
Next

If it wasn’t for the Tampa Bay Rays getting off to a historic start to the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates would likely be the most talked about team in the Major Leagues so far this season. After losing 100 games last season, the Pirates are now 17-8 after beating the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-1 on Wednesday.

Their great start can be attributed to a strong effort on both sides of the ball. Going into Wednesday, they had a top 10 offense in terms of runs and OPS, and a top 10 pitching staff in terms of ERA.

We’ve seen the good (beating up on the Colorado Rockies 14-3 twice in the same series), the bad (blowing a 7-2 lead with shaky defense and pitching against the Dodgers) and the ugly (losing Oneil Cruz to a long-term ankle injury), so now is a good time to look at how sustainable this hot start to the season is.

Diving into what was worked for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023

Hot offensive numbers to start the season 

Going into Wednesday’s game with the Dodgers, the Pirates had six players with at least 20 at-bats and an OPS over .850. Granted, 20 at-bats is practically nothing in terms of sample size, but it goes to show how hot the bats have been so far and how early it still is.

Jack Suwinski (52 at-bats, 1.020 OPS) and Connor Joe (61 at-bats, 1.013) are perhaps the two most impressive hot starters. We obviously don’t expect either of them to finish the season with an OPS this high, but it doesn’t mean that they can’t both be productive hitters this season. According to Statcast, Suwinski is currently in the top 10% in the MLB in terms of average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage and walk percentage. On the other hand, Joe is in the top 8% in terms of hard-hit percentage and weighted on-base percentage. While they won’t finish the season as MVP-candidate hitters, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if both can finish with an OPS over .800.

The Pirates leaders, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, have also done their part in bigger sample sizes so far. Reynolds, who recently signed a contract extension, currently has an .872 OPS, spearheaded by his .553 slugging percentage so far this season. Out of all the Pirates hitters, his OPS is the most likely to stick. He’s finished two seasons with an OPS over .880, and his current .319 OBP is much lower than his .359 career average.

McCutchen, on the other hand, has seen a career resurgence to start the season, perhaps putting together his best season since he was last in Pittsburgh. He went into Wednesday with an .898 OPS and three steals to start the season. According to Statcast, his expected stats don’t look too different than his age-30 season, his last season with the Pirates where he finished with an .849 OPS.

While we might expect his numbers so far this season to regress, it isn’t that far-fetched to think that McCutchen could have his best season since he was last with the Pirates. Just think of the resurgence that Albert Pujols had with the Cardinals last season.

All things considered, while the Pirates offense has gotten off to an impressive start and should be better than advertised going into the season, some players are due for some regression.

Home/Pittsburgh Pirates