3. DJ Herz, Washington Nationals
I couldn't wrap up this series without taking a real shot in the dark on a pick, so here it is. DJ Herz, who is currently battling for the final spot in the rotation for the lowly Nationals, is a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Despite the fact that Herz might not even open the season with the big league team, there's a lot to like about the 24-year-old lefty's upside, given he gets enough playing time.
Herz threw 88.2 innings over 19 starts for the Nats in 2024, and posted a 4.16 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, and an 18.3 K-BB%. Herz was fairly consistent throughout his rookie season which began on June 4, but also logged a few elite outings. In just his third start, Herz struck out 13 hitters with zero walks and one hit over six innings in a start against the Marlins. He posted another ten strikeout game three starts later against the Mets.
DJ Herz records his second 10+ K, 0 BB outing in 6 career starts! pic.twitter.com/fuVNhDscKT
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2024
The real concern surrounding Herz upon his debut was his control and command. In his five minor league seasons since 2019, Herz did not have a season in which he walked less than 13.6% of the batters he faced. For reference, the Major League average for starters in 2024 was 7.6%.
On top of that, the walk rate for minor league pitchers tends to inflate when they reach the big leagues due to hitters being more disciplined. However, that was not the case for Herz. In fact, he managed to lower his BB% to 9.4 during his big league stint.
The key for Herz was trusting his fastball in the zone more. His fastball only averaged 93.5 mph, and yet it was one of the best in the game at producing whiffs. The offering had a 30.5 whiff% which ranked fifth among all big league fastballs, coming in ahead of plenty notable fastball specialists.
The reason he finds so much success with his fastball is because of his funky left handed delivery. There is no one more of a fan of low-release point, funky left handed pitchers than me, and Herz nearly fits the profile in a perfect manner.
As a matter of fact, Herz reminds me a lot of Shota Imanaga, who looked like a Cy Young finalist in the first half of 2024. If Herz can lean into his delivery and reliably repeat an elite fastball (while continuing to improve his command), he can certainly be one of the biggest breakout stories in 2025.