It is that time of year to start making award predictions, but as I have always liked to do, it's also time to make dark horse predictions.
The term "dark horse" gets thrown around a lot at the beginning of a new season, so I wanted to make it clear that my version of a "dark horse" awards candidate is, for the most part, an average to above-average player (based on track record) with the upside to put up a Cy Young/MVP-caliber season. That is what you'll find in these three pitchers for the most part.
Tarik Skubal was the consensus dark horse Cy Young candidate headed into last season, which kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise if everyone is picking the same player.
With that being said, I did my best to abide by my rules, so here are my three dark horse candidates for the 2025 American League Cy Young award.
1. Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
If you're unfamiliar with Ryan Pepiot, his name might ring a bell for you as part of the return in the Tyler Glasnow trade between the Rays and the Dodgers last offseason. If you still don't know who he is, it's time to acquaint yourself with the 27-year-old right-hander, as he is primed for a big season in 2025.
In his first two seasons with the Dodgers, Pepiot was unable to string together any significant amount of playing time, as he dealt with injury issues and there was simply not enough room for him in the big league rotation. However, he put together some solid numbers during his time in Los Angeles. He threw 78.1 innings between 2022 and 2023, and posted a 2.76 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Pepiot's upside earned him a full-time spot in Tampa Bay's starting rotation last year — the first time in his big league career that he threw 100 or more innings in a season. He started 26 games, the second most on the Rays last year, and performed very well, posting a 3.60 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and a 17.4 K-BB% over 130 innings. Had it not been for two separate trips to the 15-day IL, Pepiot likely would have had one of the better seasons among American League pitchers.
What makes Pepiot unique is his success with his four-seam fastball. The offering averages 94.9 mph on the radar gun, which is fairly low for an elite fastball in today's game. However, it yields great results. The pitch ranks within the top 20 across multiple advanced categories, including run value (10), BAA (.181), xBA (.172), SLG (.330), xSLG (.347), xwOBA (.292), and whiff% (31.4).
On top of his outstanding fastball, Pepiot has a deep arsenal, displaying a changeup, cutter, slider, and curveball. Because of a pitch mix that lends the ability to get both right-handed and left-handed hitters out, there isn't too much discrepancy between his platoon splits, which is an important aspect of being a successful pitcher at the big league level.
If Pepiot can make 30 starts and deliver 150 or more innings, I believe he can find himself in the Cy Young conversation (or at least earn down-ballot votes) in 2025.