3. Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
My final dark horse AL Cy Young candidate is Bailey Ober, who has appeared on similar lists in past years — and for good reason. Ober is an imposing figure on the mound, standing in at 6'9" and 260 pounds, and has been one of the more underrated pitchers since his first full season in 2023, as well as one of the more successful Twins starters in that time frame.
Due to some nagging injuries, Ober only threw 148.1 innings between his first two seasons in 2021 and 2022, but showed a lot of promise as a future mainstay in the rotation. Over those two seasons, he posted a 3.82 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and a 19.3 K-BB%. 2023 was his first season with 100 or more innings, and then he finally pieced together his first full season in 2024.
His numbers from last year don't jump off the page by any means, but there are some numbers under the hood that suggest Ober can produce elite results. He ranked roughly in the middle of the pack among AL starters last year with a 3.98 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 2.9 fWAR over 178.2 innings, but also has a Baseball Savant page with plenty of red marks.
Similar to Tanner Bibee, Ober has a unique ability to not only limit hard contact, but also to strike out hitters at an above-average rate while walking hitters at a below-average rate.
He produces a ton of chases outside of the zone (93rd percentile) as well as plenty of whiffs (76th percentile), which is how he racks up his strikeouts at nearly a 27% rate. Because hitters are often chasing pitches, it's tough for them to make solid contact, which has resulted in an elite 3.22 xERA and .209 xBA for Ober. The combination of the two skills make for a high floor for the intimidating righty.
What I find to be unique about Ober is that he's not overpowering, despite his size. He only averages 91.7 mph on his fastball, but also creates a crazy amount of extension at 7.3 feet because of his long levers. That type of extension gives the illusion that the fastball is coming in harder than it actually is.
On top of that, Ober does have an elite pitch, which has become the theme among these three starters. His changeup is one of the best in baseball, ranking within the top five among changeups in run value (8), BAA (.154), xBA (.164), SLG (.285), xSLG (.263), xwOBA (.206), and whiff% (39.5). Given his tools across the board, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ober in the conversation for AL Cy Young at the end of the year.