Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde was fired after a 15-28 start due to struggles with both pitching and hitting. The team has the second-worst run differential in baseball (-85) despite what looked like a solid offense on paper this preseason.
Barring a historic turnaround, it's clear 2025 isn't going to be the Orioles' season. Should they punt on competing this year in order to maximize their chances in 2026 and beyond?
Why are the Orioles struggling so badly this season?
The front office has failed to replace the valuable assets that left in free agency. Corbin Burnes' production was regrettably only replaced by aging veterans Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson. Morton has a ridiculous 7.68 ERA that is massively outdone by Gibson's 16.78 ERA. After only 12 1/3 innings, Gibson was designated for assignment.
Anthony Santander's departure was filled by adding Ramón Laureano and rookie Heston Kjerstad. Laureano has been one of the more productive hitters in the lineup, with a hitting line of .266/.320/.532, an .852 OPS, six home runs, 11 runs batted in, and a 140 wRC+.
Kjerstad, the second overall pick in the 2020 draft, has been quite the opposite, hitting .203/.252/.331, a .582 OPS, four home runs, 15 runs knocked in, and a brutal 66 wRC+. Neither has been able to fully replicate Santander's production.
With the lack of productive offseason additions, the returning young stars have struggled. Adley Rutschman (.659 OPS and five home runs) and Ryan Mountcastle (.590 OPS and two home runs) are off to slow starts this season.
Gunnar Henderson started the season slowly but has started to get comfortable after beginning the season on the injured list (.762 OPS and seven home runs). The pitching staff is also awful, with Tomoyuki Sugano the only starting pitcher recording a sub-5.00 ERA (3.07), while the bullpen ranks 25th in team ERA (4.88).
This Baltimore Orioles team has been a colossal failure this season. There was so much hype around the team this preseason after an ALDS exit to the eventual World Series Champion Texas Rangers in 2023 and a Wild Card Series exit to the Kansas City Royals last season.
Should the Orioles hold tight or start building for next season?
A few weeks ago, I said to hold tight on the Orioles being sellers, but while the offense may flip a switch and start heating up, this pitching staff is atrocious. Since it's not just one or two guys struggling, there's no correcting the staff mid-season. Amongst pitchers with at least 14 innings pitched, eight have an ERA above 4.30, and only four have lower ERAs. The pitching staff will need to be massively overhauled in the offseason.
The front office should consider the assets that could provide a nice return from trading. After this season, Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Sugano, and Gregory Soto are all veterans eligible for free agency. They are, luckily, the few bright spots this season and could fetch a nice return to build upon for next season.
Zach Eflin and Seranthony Dominguez could also return valuable assets despite their struggles. Enough contenders need pitching that someone will probably trade something in the hopes that those two live up to their pre-2025 track records.
With the team's success in the last two seasons, fans may not be happy with the idea of selling so quickly, but there is still a solid core of young stars to build on for next season.
The offense will return an excellent core with Rutschman, Henderson, Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser. The other side of the ball needs a lot of work, so acquiring young, quality pitching makes sense. Now may also be the time to see what the Orioles' top prospects, Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo, can do in the big leagues over an extended period.
The worst thing a contender can do is waste a year of their stars' primes on a lost season. The Orioles might as well admit defeat and start building towards something better and more sustainable next year.