With the understanding that Kenley Jansen would walk away in free agency after two mostly-solid years in Beantown, the Red Sox were in the market for some new blood in the back-end of their bullpen.
Well, calling him “new blood" may be a bit generous as he heads into his age-37 season, but Aroldis Chapman will likely get first crack at filling the closer role in Boston after signing a one-year, $10.75 million deal with the Red Sox on Tuesday.
Fans certainly had fun reacting to the news, with some citing Chapman's time with the Yankees as a means of stoking the flames of the legendary Boston-New York rivalry, and others simply poking fun at Boston for taking a detour from their pursuit of Juan Soto.
Full throttle amirite boys??? pic.twitter.com/DAvb7orW3q
— Joey (@DJLeMVP) December 3, 2024
Chapman isn’t the same pitcher who once hurled 105 MPH lightning bolts routinely, though his average fastball velocity still ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. At a 3.79 ERA (3.04 FIP) in 61 ⅔ innings last year, Chapman isn’t a surefire shutdown closer anymore, and yet his 14.3 K/9 was right in line with his career norms.
On and on the same analysis goes. In totality, it all means that Chapman has fallen from the legendary heights he once occupied, but he’s still a pretty darn good pitcher compared to his contemporaries. Of course, his off-the-field issues can’t be ignored, but purely from a baseball perspective, his addition makes plenty of sense for a team that desperately needs help in the bullpen.
The Red Sox bullpen is underwhelming even with Chapman
That relief crew is filled with a lot of question marks and few answers.
Liam Hendricks was an elite closer for a while with the Athletics and Chicago White Sox, though he’s thrown just five innings total since his cancer diagnosis in December 2022. He’s now cancer free, though he required Tommy John surgery immediately after returning to the mound last year, which knocked him out for the entirety of the 2024 season. His track record is strong and he is an easy guy to root for, but relying on him to be anything in 2025 is a fool’s errand.
Justin Slaten (2.93 ERA in 55 ⅓ innings) and Greg Weissert (3.13 ERA in 63.1 innings) both had strong campaigns this year, though the former was a rookie and the latter struggled in previous cups of coffee with the Yankees. That is to say: they may be solid relievers, but their track records are perilously thin.
Beyond them, it’s a pretty barren wasteland out in right-center field in Fenway Park. Justin Wilson (5.59 ERA in 46 ⅔ innings) was an unmitigated disaster this past season. Brennan Bernardino (4.06 ERA in 51.0 innings) and Josh Winckowski (4.14 ERA in 76.0 innings) were merely average. Michael Fulmer also missed the entire 2024 season with his own UCL injury that he suffered in late-2023.
Add it up, and you have the makings of a bullpen that looks bad on paper, and only marginally better with Chapman at the helm. The southpaws’ still-elite swing-and-miss stuff — 37.1% strikeout rate (99th percentile), 32.3% whiff rate (91st percentile) — adds a lot to a group that is losing Jansen’s 28.4% strikeout rate, but it isn’t going to salvage it single-handedly.
As long as Chapman is the first of many moves that President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow makes to patch up his relief crew, this is a solid signing. If it’s the only thing he does, the late innings may be a nightmare in Boston next season.