Tampa Bay Rays
Best-case scenario: Begin with Christopher Morel, a youngster with unlimited potential who was obtained from the Cubs last summer. If the Rays can instill some strike zone discipline, Morel has the tools to be an All-Star and a dynamite middle-of-the-order threat.
Follow with first baseman Yandy Diaz adding 100 percentage points to his 2024 .755 OPS. Again, the raw talent is there.
The Rays are, at heart, a pitching-first team, but last season they were basically middle of the pack in both staff ERA and runs allowed per game. They need a full return from projected staff aces Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen. The former lost all of 2024 to Tommy John surgery; the latter pitched half of 2024 following a 2023 elbow surgery.
In that best-case scenario, the Rays can do what they usually do: over-perform expectations and contend for a division title.
Worst-case scenario: The heart of the Tampa Bay order consists of the Lowe boys, Josh and Brandon, plus Diaz and Morel. There is neither an established power nor batting average threat among them. No surprise, then, that Tampa Bay ranked 14th in the AL last season in runs per game.
The big offseason addition was free agent middle infielder Ha-Seong Kim, formerly of the Padres. He’s a capable fielder but lacks on-base and slugging potential, the two qualities the Rays need most.
If the Rays offense drags again in 2025, it will put too much pressure on the pitching staff and Tampa Bay will struggle to reprise its 80-82 record of 2024.
Most likely scenario: It’s asking a lot of the star-less Rays to compete in the loaded AL East. Staying out of last place would be an accomplishment.