Toronto Blue Jays
Best-case scenario: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a free agent at season’s end. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, the Jays’ best-case scenario begins with Guerrero amassing a classic ‘walk year’ — how about 45 homers, 130 RBIs and a batting title — as the centerpiece of the team’s postseason bid.
It’s not too late for Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement to show up big, for Bo Bichette to return to his pre-2024 form, and for Anthony Santander to prove worthy of his contract.
If Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman reproduce their 2024 seasons — a combined 30-22 record for 270 innings and a 3.70 ERA — they constitute a good start to a reliable rotation. It’s not implausible to think that Chris Bassitt will rebound from a poor 2024, and that Max Scherzer will at minimum be a useful No. 5.
If that all happens, the Jays can contend.
Worst-case scenario: The stalled contract extension talks with Guerrero go nowhere, prompting the Jays to dump him at the trade deadline. Bichette continues his 2024 funk, Bassitt and Scherzer contribute nothing, and the staff — bottom third in the AL last season in ERA — sinks again.
In those dire scenarios, Santander finds himself without meaningful offensive support. Result: The Jays are fortunate to avoid a second straight season in the division cellar.
Most likely scenario: Guerrero has a big season, but with no hope of extending him, the Jays take the best trade deadline offer. That neuters the contributions of Santander, Bichette, Kirk and trade addition Andrés Giménez.
Combine that deficiency with the lack of pitching depth, and Toronto fights it out with Tampa Bay for last place in the division.