Cincinnati Reds
Best-case scenario: Elly De la Cruz matures into an MVP candidate, leads the league in steals again, and reduces his strikeout total below one per game. Spencer Steer and T.J. Friedl both add 50 points to their batting averages.
Will Benson rediscovers the power stroke that made him a solid find in 2023, and substantially deflates that 40 percent strikeout rate that made him a liability in 2024. Matt McClain returns to full health.
Terry Francona can rely on Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott for 60 starts and 320 innings worth of All-Star-level performance. With De La Cruz leading the offense and Francona’s generalship, the Reds add a dozen wins to their 2024 total and hijack the NL Central title.
Worst-case scenario: Beyond Greene and Abbott, the rotation proves too shallow to support serious summer-long contention. Nick Martinez fails to justify the team’s faith in giving him a rotation spot, and Nick Lodolo confirms what 2024 suggested: that he’s a 4.70 ERA functionary.
The shoulder injury that cost McClain all of 2024 impacts his swing, putting the load on offseason acquisition Gavin Lux, who produces the same ordinary numbers he did in Los Angeles. Jeimer Candelario again hits .225 with limited on-base and slugging skills, re-enforcing the mystery of why the Reds ever gave him $60 million through 2027.
With De La Cruz as the only high-functioning offensive piece, the Reds stumble home in their usual fourth or fifth place slot.
Most-likely scenario: If you believe in De La Cruz, Greene and Francona — and why wouldn’t you? — the Reds are virtually guaranteed to contend. Nonetheless, in Spencer Steer, T.J. Friedl, Santiago Espinal, McClain, Lux, Lodolo, Benson and Tyler Stephenson, they have a lot of guys who could go big or go home.
That identifies the Reds as one of those fascinating 2025 teams who could win anywhere between 75 and 90 games, and it’s anybody’s guess where the actual number will fall.