Milwaukee Brewers
Best-case scenario: The Brewers have a knack for exceeding expectations, so the smart thing to do is probably to avoid analysis altogether and just write them in for 87 wins and divisional contention.
What would that take? Start with an early season return of Brandon Woodruff, who missed all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery. A big season from winter pickup Nestor Cortes would be nice, supplementing the reliable job staff ace Freddy Peralta can be counted on giving.
The Crew also need a serious MVP candidate to step up: William Contreras and Jackson Chourio have the potential. Joey Ortiz, following a 2024 initiation at third base, inherits shortstop with aplomb.
Rhys Hoskins hit 28 home runs at first base last season; could he push 40? Either way, Milwaukee’s best-case scenario always involves dominating the division as they did last season.
Worst-case scenario: The Brewers annually tempt fate by letting their big-money stars go. Last year it was Corbin Burnes; this past winter it was Willy Adames and Devin Williams. That budget-conscious trend finally catches up with them in their worst-case scenario.
The potential tripwires are abundant. What if Woodruff doesn’t come back fully healthy or — perish the thought — doesn’t come back at all? What if the sophomore slump strikes Chourio?
What if the league catches up with Tobias Myers, who had a 3.00 ERA in his rookie season? What if Ortiz can’t make the conversion from a reaction position to a range position? What if Oliver Dunn, Ortiz’s designated successor at third base, hits .221 again, but this time over 500 at bats rather than 101?
That’s a recipe for the Brewers to do something they haven’t done since the Covid-shortened season: fall below .500.
Most likely scenario: When assessing the NL Central, it’s always wise to write the Brewers in as a contender. But a lot does hinge on the X-factor that is Woodruff’s status. The hope is he’s back and pitching well by late May or early June. If so, Milwaukee’s season-ending three-game series with the Reds could be meaningful indeed.