Deeper dive into SF Giants signing Willy Adames shows Buster Posey made A+ decision

Buster Posey's San Francisco Giants have finally landed a marquee free agent, adding shortstop Willy Adames after multiple offseasons of disappointment.

Milwaukee Brewers Willy Adames smiles as he answers questions during a press conference before the National League Wild Card Series at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
Milwaukee Brewers Willy Adames smiles as he answers questions during a press conference before the National League Wild Card Series at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. | Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In Buster Posey’s first major move at the helm of his longtime franchise, the San Francisco Giants did their Winter Meetings homework early and gave shortstop Willy Adames a 7-year, $182 million deal.

This marks the largest contract the Giants have ever handed out, breaking the record previously held by Posey himself. With Adames joining last offseason’s acquisition Matt Chapman — whose September extension Posey heavily influenced before his eventual promotion — the Giants will now boast a scintillating left side of the infield for the next several years.

The Tigers originally signed Adames in 2012 as a 16-year-old international free agent. Two years later, he was dealt to the Rays in the three-team trade that sent David Price to Detroit. He climbed steadily through the Rays system before debuting in 2018 and cementing himself as their everyday shortstop, where he remained until 2021.

Partially due to issues with seeing pitches against Tampa Bay’s batter’s eye backdrop, he was dealt to Milwaukee, where he enjoyed three-and-a-half excellent seasons in his run-up to free agency.

What are the Giants getting in Adames?

Adames is a rare “Three True Outcome” shortstop. Since his first full season in 2019, among shortstops, he ranks third in home runs with 140 (behind Francisco Lindor’s 150 and Corey Seager’s 146), second in walks with 317 (behind J.P. Crawford’s 338), and first in strikeouts. Those whiffs are definitely a concern, but his strikeout rate has decreased every year since joining the Brewers, and they are well worth the sacrifice for his powerful bat.

In a project of mine I call LASR (League-Adjusted Standardized Rating), I transform all stats to be expressed on a 20-80 scouting scale based on league qualifiers. On the scale, 50 is average and 10 points in either direction is one standard deviation (all data is sourced from FanGraphs).

In the selected stats below, we can see how Adames stacks up against his peers. While the aforementioned strikeout rates are indeed less than ideal, the HR%, Launch Angle (LA), and Barrel% grades show he has clearly been an above average power hitter since joining Milwaukee.

As evidenced by the drop in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), the typically sure-handed shortstop put up a surprisingly poor defensive showing in 2024. The Giants are certainly crossing their fingers that this was a fluke, or else they may be looking at moving him to second base a few years into his contract. With the defensive whiz Chapman scooping up grounders beside him, though, his glove work may see a bump through association alone.

With Adames, the Giants have finally landed a marquee free agent after multiple offseasons of failed attempts. Though they eventually brought on Chapman and Blake Snell last offseason, those were considered consolation prizes after their pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto both ended with the superstars choosing the rival Dodgers.

That followed a winter in which they were the disappointed runner-up in the Aaron Judge sweepstakes and famously decided against an agreed-upon Carlos Correa long-term contract over medical concerns.

Though Adames is ultimately not the same caliber as those players, this acquisition is a definite signal that Posey is serious about building a contender. Posey implied earlier in the offseason that the Giants had big plans, but conflicting reports suggested a payroll reduction.

According to Roster Resource, they are still projected to spend $26 million less in 2025 than they did last season. However, they still have starting pitching needs and have been connected to some of the biggest pitchers are on the market, so they may have to get financially creative to complete their offseason checklist.

More From Call To The Pen: