St. Louis Cardinals
Best-case scenario: The Cardinals enter 2025 in a strange position: projected NL Central also-rans.
There certainly is potential to believe in St. Louis. What happens if Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages and Alec Burleson all blossom into the franchise-headlining stars Cardinal fans believe they can be? Despite the best efforts of Cardinal management to the contrary, Nolan Arenado is still around, and at 34. he projects to have at least a few good seasons remaining.
Sure, the pitching staff has question marks. But Sonny Gray (13-9, 3.84 ERA in 28 starts last season) is reliable, and Andre Pallante, just 26, could be an emerging ace. Nobody doubts Ryan Helsley at the back end of the bullpen; he finished 62 games last season, saving 49 of them with a 2.04 ERA.
Factor all that in with the mysterious and borderline magical ‘Cardinal Way’, and it would be foolish to discount the Cardinals’ chances at contending.
Worst-case scenario: Gray, entering his age 35 season, has to be the staff anchor because there’s no reason to believe his journeyman compatriots, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde or Miles Mikolas, are up to that challenge.
The Cardinals were 10th in runs allowed per game and 13th in runs scored, making their total of 83 wins something of a fluke. In fact, they performed seven games better than their Pythagorean projection. If you believe that the breaks even out, that alone spells trouble for 2025.
Most likely scenario: There’s an unusual amount of turbulence surrounding one of the game’s most historically stable franchises. John Mozeliak is playing out the string as team president while Chaim Bloom waits anxiously to take over in October. And who knows what may happen with Arenado next week or next month?
All that turbulence suggests that St. Louis is ripe for a fall, probably to somewhere below 81 wins. If they contend in 2025, it will be a great accomplishment for manager Oliver Marmol.