It's no secret that the Blue Jays haven't been able to lure superstars to their organization over the last few offseasons. What's particularly striking is that a depleted farm system is what's keeping the team from landing the big fish.
In a report from Jeff Passan earlier this week, the Blue Jays were listed, quite obviously, as a team that needs to make a move this offseason. One particular thing that Passan noted, somewhat in passing, is rather worrisome for a team that is far from the class of the AL East.
""They [the Blue Jays] have money and are willing to spend it. But in an AL East with a Yankees team that made the World Series, an ascendant Red Sox team, an always-competitive Tampa Bay squad and a Baltimore Orioles unit that could be the best of them all, the Blue Jays don't rate quite the same. And with an uninspiring farm system -- multiple free agent players took notice -- and next to no foundational players under contract beyond 2025, ultimately the good is counterbalanced by the not so good.""Jeff Passan
What does this mean for the Blue Jays forward, especially with long-term contract decisions looming for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette?
How Should Blue Jays Approach Rest of Offseason?
Now, we don't know to what extent certain players — or even which free agents — took the Blue Jays' lackluster farm system into account when deciding not to come to Toronto.
This Blue Jays core, headlined by Guerrero and Bichette, once attracted big-name free agents just a few years ago. George Springer and Kevin Gausman both signed nine-figure deals to head north of the border, and José Berrios signed a $131 million extension to remain in Canada for the duration of his prime.
Plus, the team has still been able to acquire valuable players via trade, from Matt Chapman (who has since left for San Francisco) to new second baseman Andrés Giménez. To call the Blue Jays "talent bereft" would be an outright falsehood, even if they seemingly can't close the deal on their preferred targets.
Still, take a look at different outlets' consensus Top 100 prospect rankings, and you won't find many Blue Jays prospects on those lists. MLB.com's rankings only place Trey Yesavage on the list (at the very back at No. 94), while FanGraphs is a bit nicer, giving Orelvis Martinez, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jake Bloss spots in the 80-95 range.
So, with a future that's just about as uncertain as baseball can get, where should the Blue Jays go?
If they can convince Guerrero Jr. to sign an extension — and recent reports have suggested they may be as far as $100 million apart — then the obvious move is to try and keep Bichette while offloading some of the other expensive veterans for younger pieces to build around the next generation of Blue Jays players.
However, if Vladdy doesn't re-sign in Toronto, then does that mean the Blue Jays have to start from scratch again? Losing him for nothing (besides a compensatory draft pick) would be a bitter pill to swallow, but if the Jays are semi-competitive by the time the trade deadline rolls around, are they really going to trade away their face of the franchise?
2025 may prove to be a last stand for this core — as well as the front office brain trust — but that doesn't mean the Blue Jays can't make some moves in the second half of this offseason that would position them better for the future. Perhaps a signing of Anthony Santander (to whom they've already made an offer) or a full-throttled pursuit for Alex Bregman could alter their short-term course.
Unfortunately, the long-term outlook isn't rosy no matter how you look at it. Barring a monstrous extension for Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays may need to blow it up to start rebuilding a farm system that's been scaring off free agents.