We've talked a lot about the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saga here at Call To The Pen. When it became clear that Guerrero planned to test free agency, we lambasted the Blue Jays for letting it get to this point with their best player since José Bautista was in his prime.
Well, it turns out that Guerrero's Opening Day ultimatum may have truly been just a thinly-veiled negotiating tactic. Recent reports suggest that the franchise and its homegrown star are nearing an extension agreement at long last.
According to @mikedeportes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Toronto Blue Jays are very close to reach an extension agreement of more than $500 million dollars. https://t.co/4HWOuY9UEz
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) April 4, 2025
Of course, let's take this all with a grain of salt, at least until multiple sources corroborate that talks are nearing the finish line.
However, the focus for right now is on that dollar number. We've known for a while that Guerrero wanted a deal in excess of 10 years and $500 million. What we've also known for a while is that he isn't worth that kind of money.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not worth $500 million, from Blue Jays or anyone else
Last month, Guerrero's asking price became public; he admitted to asking for less than $600 million over 15 years, which many assumed to believe was his way of saying he wanted half of one billion dollars on his next contract.
He definitively said that he wasn't looking for the deal Juan Soto got, and that his final offer to the Blue Jays came in below $600 million.
So, then, is it reasonable to expect the first baseman to get a deal in excess of 12 years and $500 million? He's had two special seasons in 2021 and 2024, but sandwiched between them were two good-not-great campaigns.
His wRC+ at his peak was 166 in 2021 and 165 last season; in 2022 and 2023, he posted marks of 132 and 118, respectively. Those latter numbers are still solid, but there's a huge difference between being 20-30% better than the average hitter, and 60% better.
To illustrate the point: Guerrero's 165 wRC+ ranked sixth in baseball last year, just a few spots behind Soto and in the company of guys like Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr. His new teammate, Anthony Santander, finished 26th with a 129 wRC+, earning a five-year, $92.5 million contract for that career year.
If his 2025 campaign looked like his seasons in '21 and '24, then, sure. You'd at least have an argument for making him baseball's next half-billionaire. And it's far too early to tell if that kind of performance will come to pass this year, even as Guerrero is struggling to the tune of a .624 OPS and 25.8% strikeout rate in his first seven games.
But... man. That $500 million mark has thus far been reserved for Shohei Ohtani (a one-of-one talent that may be the best hitter and pitcher in baseball simultaneously) and Juan Soto (one of the greatest hitters in baseball history who is still in his mid-20s). Guerrero is also a young guy (he just turned 26 in March), but he's not a generational talent on par with those titans of the game.
This is where the Blue Jays' desperation has landed them. Don't fork over $500 million, and you lose the face of your franchise for essentially nothing. Do so, and you run the risk of getting a solid player for the price of a historically great one.
It appears Toronto is about to blink in negotiations. For their sake, let's hope Guerrero's best years are still ahead of him.