Gerrit Cole is the ace of the New York Yankees, full stop. Any time missed by the 2023 AL Cy Young winner would be catastrophic for the reigning American League pennant winners.
Well... about that. Cole, 34, is on a four-year, $144 million contract after opting out and then effectively reversing that decision shortly after the 2024 World Series. Unfortunately, from the sounds of the rumors spreading like wildfire, it appears Cole will have to miss at least the first year of that pact.
Gerrit Cole has been recommended to have Tommy John surgery, per @JimBowdenGM
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 10, 2025
The Yankees are waiting on a second opinion to confirm pic.twitter.com/QsNKR8tCYI
By this point, all baseball fans know what Tommy John surgery constitutes. Cole will have to undergo an elbow procedure that has been refined to an exact science, limiting him from any baseball activity for about six months. If all goes well in rehab and recovery, Cole could return as early as Opening Day 2026, assuming he has the surgery as soon as possible.
The real issue is what this means for the Yankees right now. They had vaunted rotation depth earlier in the offseason, but a trade of Nestor Cortes and injuries to Cole and Luis Gil (lat strain) have turned Marcus Stroman from a luxury trade chip into a roster necessity.
So, are the Yankees even capable of competing without Cole this year?
Gerrit Cole's injury will demand the most out of Max Fried, Yankees' depth
Luckily, the Yankees do still have an ace-caliber pitcher atop their staff, as they signed Max Fried to a lucrative eight-year, $218 million contract
Already armed with (pun intended) Carlos Ródon (six-year, $162 million contract), New York should have an enviable 1-2 punch of southpaws atop the rotation.
But whereas Cole and Gil helped those two form the skeleton of the best rotation in baseball, now Marcus Stroman and top prospect Will Warren will have to fill in the cracks. Clarke Schmidt should remain one of the steadiest mid-rotation arms in the league, but he'll have a harder time matching up with other teams' No. 3 starters rather than their fifth options.
And beyond just the natural escalation of the team's current starters on the depth chart, the Yankees must now reach deep into their roster to find further reinforcements. The problem: there really aren't any.
Brent Headrick, a recent waiver claim from the Minnesota Twins, has experience starting in the minor leagues, but he's been used exclusively (to middling success) as a reliever in spring training thus far. Beyond him and the aforementioned rotation options, the Yankees have zero other starters on the 40-man roster.
Carlos Carrasco is pitching decently as a non-roster invite at spring training, but he's 38 and fresh off back-to-back disastrous seasons with the Guardians and Mets. Alan Winans (another offseason waiver claim) has a 1.08 ERA in spring training, but he's striking no one out and has a comical 100% left on base rate. He'll come back down to earth in a larger sample.
Once Cole officially undergoes the surgery, he'll be placed on the 60-day IL, opening up a roster spot for another starter. Giancarlo Stanton and Gil will also receive that designation soon enough, meaning the Yankees have roster flexibility to work with.
They just don't have the talent. One injury to any member of the rotation right now could prove to be season-defining, if Cole's injury didn't already meet that threshold.