4. Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros, ADP: 109
With these next two players, it comes down to track record. Players without any sort of track record of success at the big league level certainly are tougher to forecast.
Hunter Brown just finished up his second big league season which was much better than his rookie campaign. He tossed 170 innings to the tune of a 3.49 ERA and a 3.58 FIP. Those numbers were much improved from 2023, but it's still a small sample size for a starting pitcher. In 2023, Brown had the fifth-highest ERA among starters with at least 150 innings at 5.09. His 1.36 WHIP and .261 BAA were both ninth-highest.
While the numbers were improved last year, there are still marks on his stat line that should raise a few red flags for the 26-year-old. Brown's WHIP in 2024 was still mediocre at 1.27 while his K% (25.1) and K-BB% (16.7) both actually came down from his poor rookie year.
The quality of contact numbers against Brown improved a lot in 2024, but the batted ball type numbers trended in the opposite direction. Brown produced a solid 4.5 barrel%, 30.3 hardhit%, 86.2 average EV, and 3.31 xERA, but also saw a drop in GB% at 48.9 and an increase in FB% at 30.5. While those numbers are still better than league-average, there's not a whole lot that convinces me Brown is going to take another giant step forward in 2025.