Spring is a time defined by extremes. Fans, pundits, and everyone in between oscillate between supreme confidence and overdramatic doubt during MLB's first few weeks of camp.
Despite having a solid offseason which included signing Juan Soto, many are already concerned that the New York Mets' front office did not do enough to ensure a strong starting rotation. Even with some early injuries and legitimate questions, though, it is still too early to make an accurate judgement about how they will impact the club.
Why it's not time to worry about the New York Mets' rotation just yet
Much of the concern regarding New York's rotation stems from the fact that a few of last year's key names departed this winter. Luis Severino inked a three-year contract with the Athletics and Jose Quintana just signed a one-year deal with the Brewers.
There are also injuries worth considering. Sean Manaea is currently dealing with a right-oblique strain and is expected to miss Opening Day. Further, Frankie Montas is expected to be out with a high-grade lat strain until at least the middle of May.
Make no mistake, these departures and injuries are real reasons to wonder about how well the Mets will play out of the gate. But, it is only fair to acknowledge the arms who will be available to compete from day one.
Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Griffin Canning, Clay Holmes, and Paul Blackburn will be options to fill out the middle part of the Mets' rotation. Peterson, Canning, and Megill have all previously shown an ability to be serviceable (albeit imperfect) starters in the past, while Blackburn was an All-Star as recently as 2022.
The Mets built a rotation that could give their skilled lineup a chance to win. They do not need any of these pitchers to be consistently elite. Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Mark Vientos are all part of a lineup that should be able to steal games with power alone.
Even if it is fair to be skeptical about Holmes becoming a starter, his advanced stats from a year ago show that his skillset is transferable. Holmes had a 64.6 GB% and a 25.1 K% as a relief pitcher. Additionally, he ranked in the 88th percentile in terms of fastball velocity.
The Dothan native's ability to hunt strikeouts and pitch to contact will serve him well as a member of the Mets' rotation, even if he will initially need to adjust to a new routine and schedule.
Clay Holmes looked great in his debut as a starter today:
— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 22, 2025
34 pitches
3 IP 0 H 0 R 0 BB 3 K
44 CSW%🔥
6 pitch mix and displayed his new “kick change”
I really think we are about to see a Michael King-like season from Holmes in 2025
pic.twitter.com/C8nKGbNuap
Of course, it would be foolish to not mention the Mets' marquee ace, Kodai Senga. The 32-year-old missed the vast majority of last season, but was very efficient in his 2023 rookie campaign. Across 29 starts that season, Senga went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA.
If he can stay healthy, it is possible that Senga could take a step forward. He got a taste of October in 2024, and is now more aware of how to use his "ghost fork" to keep hitters at bay every fifth day.
Kodai Senga, Wicked 83mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/pNwz19UMrA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 3, 2025
Even if either Manaea or Montas is out for longer than anticipated, Senga figures to be a solid staple atop the rotation. All the remaining arms must do is allow New York to stay competitive in ballgames as the team's lineup of venerated sluggers does the rest.