One year after the most famous free agency saga of all time, Juan Soto is heading into the land of unclaimed superstars expecting to incite a bidding war of his own.
Now, Soto isn't exactly the player that Shohei Ohtani is. He's an all-time great hitter that marries power with patience in a way the sport hasn't really seen since the prime days of Barry Bonds. Ohtani is a two-way threat that dwarfs anything baseball has ever seen, having garnered two MVPs (soon to be three) and a top-five finish in Cy Young voting, all before hitting free agency.
It became clear that Ohtani would break $500 million early on in his free agency endeavor, with reports suggesting he could even break the $600 million barrier. His status as the game's most important free agent ever grew so loud that there were fans speculating over the name of his dog. And who can forget when it was falsely reported that he was on a flight to Toronto, supposedly to discuss a contract with the Blue Jays?
Sources: Shohei Ohtani is en route to Toronto today.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 8, 2023
A representative of his agency, CAA, would not comment when asked about Ohtani’s travel plans.
At this hour, Ohtani does not have a signed agreement with any @MLB team. @MLBNetwork
For as good of a player as Soto is, he isn't going to cause the stir that Ohtani did. His career OPS of .953 is comically high, but he can't do that while also firing off 150 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. And for as good as Soto and his .522 OBP from the World Series is, he can't produce the kind of 54 homer/59 stolen base season Ohtani just did. Soto is the perfect hitter; the ideal version of the modern offensive player. Ohtani is a singularity that defies what we know about baseball.
All that being said, Soto is still going to get a monster contract in free agency this winter. Recent reports suggest he could push for as much as $600 million, which is the sort of figure Ohtani was supposedly dabbling in before securing a (heavily-deferred) $700 million payday. It isn't outrageous to think that a 26-year-old that's been 60% better than the average hitter for his career (160 OPS+) could push for that kind of money, especially when considering the teams that'll be bidding for his services over the next decade or more.
The incumbent New York Yankees are probably the leaders in the clubhouse to sign Soto at this point in time, though they have a lot of money tied up already in players like Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole, and their non-competitive loss to the Dodgers in the World Series may make Soto think twice about committing to an aging team. Still, the allure of batting in front of Judge and taking aim at the short porch in Yankee Stadium may be hard to pass on, especially if it comes with a paycheck worth more than half-a-billion dollars.
The crosstown rival New York Mets will also be getting in on the action, and they are the only team with more money to spend than the Yankees and Dodgers. They shockingly made the NLCS in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year in 2024, and the chance to pair Soto with Francisco Lindor (and potentially Pete Alonso) is an obscenely tantalizing proposition, even if it runs owner Steve Cohen more than a billion bucks.
Lastly, the Dodgers will remain a player for every superstar free agent in perpetuity, though it's admittedly hard to imagine Soto joining their ranks in a move that would feel eerily similar to Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors in the middle of their dynasty. Having spent more than $1 billion on Japanese superstars Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto alone last offseason, the Dodgers may need to exercise a little restraint, especially since their current core just handily won the World Series.
Other big market teams like the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox should be in the running for Soto, though they've never fashioned themselves as the kinds of franchises that go dollar-for-dollar with the Dodgers and Yankees on the open market. In fact, every team should make a play for the superstar outfielder, though billionaire owners that treat their team more like investments rather than sports franchises will bow out once the bidding hits nine digits.
So, with Soto on the brink of of a payday that should rival Ohtani's, the baseball world finds itself fixated on yet another generational free agent. He'll cost more than some NHL franchises are worth, but the lucky team that gets Soto is going to have a new face of the franchise, as well as a wide-open championship window, for the next ten-plus years.