History shows Mets have more work to do after landing Juan Soto

The Mets landed the big fish in free agency, but history shows that does not guarantee postseason success.

Oct 29, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) reacts after a strike out against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third inning during game four of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Oct 29, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) reacts after a strike out against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third inning during game four of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Mets’ signing of free agent Juan Soto — for a whopping 15 seasons and $765 million – has visions of World Series dominance dancing through the minds of Mets fans.

Unfortunately, reality and dreams don't always align. The very recent history of mega-signings has been good, but a deeper dive amply illustrates that the baseball world doesn’t always follow the money.

Granted, the Dodgers pulled off the winter’s coup last year with their signing of DH/SP Shohei Ohtani. They gave Ohtani $700 million through 2033 (with another decade of deferrals on the back-end), and he gave them a World Series win in his first season while not even pitching an inning.

But as is often the case with Ohtani, he is the exception. Of the dozen deals since 2015 that we can classify as truly lucrative, eight World Series appearances but only three World Series trophies have ensued.

Here’s a look at the biggest free agent signing of each offseason of the past decade, and the teams' results that followed.

Biggest free agent signings of last decade

Player (Team)

Amount (Years)

World Series/wins

Juan Soto (Mets)

$765 million (15 years)

?/?

Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)

$700 million (10 years)

1/1 so far

Aaron Judge (Yankees)

$360 million (9 years)

1/0 so far

Bruce Harper (Phillies)

$330 million (13 years)

1/0 so far

Corey Seager (Rangers)

$325 million (10 years)

1/1 so far

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers)

$325 million (12 years)

1/1 so far

Gerrit Cole (Yankees)

$324 million (9 years)

1/0 so far

Manny Machado (Padres)

$300 million (10 years)

0/0 so far

Trea Turner (Phillies)

$300 million (11 years)

1/0 so far

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

$280 million (11 years)

0/0 so far

Bryce Harper
Oct 8, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) looks on before game three against the New York Mets in the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

2023-24. Ohtani was easily the biggest catch of the season, although the Dodgers did pretty well beyond him. They also signed Japanese free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto for $325 million through 2035. They were rewarded handsomely in Year One of those deals, going onto win the NL West by five games before trouncing the Yankees in a five-game World Series. Ohtani, by the way, won the National League Most Valuable Player Award.

2022-23. Two players divided the winter market’s attention. The Twins’ Carlos Correa opted out of his mega-deal signed one year earlier, but was rejected by both the Giants and Mets due to physical concerns. He ended up back with the Twins, signing for about $200 million through 2028 (with multiple vesting options attached on the end of the deal). The Twins won the division in 2023, no thanks to Correa, who hit .230 with a .711 OPS.

At the same time, the Yankees won a battle with San Francisco to retain Aaron Judge for $360 million through 2031. After an injury-plagued 2023 that saw the Yanks finish out of the playoff picture, Judge rebounded to hit 58 homers and win the AL MVP this past season. But, in the World Series, Judge’s .222 average was a big reason why the Yanks lost in five games.

2021-22. The Rangers were the winter free agent lottery winners. They gave shortstop Corey Seager $325 million over 10 seasons  — following up on their seven-year, $175 million offer to Marcus Semien — and the two became linchpins of Texas’ improbable run to the World Series in 2023.

In 2024, though, things worked out less smoothly. Semien fell off, hitting just .237, while Seager was limited to 123 games. The Rangers plummeted to third place, finishing ten games behind Houston in the AL West.

2020-21. This free agent class lacked the glamor of other classes. The biggest name drawing winter attention was probably Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. With extensive lobbying from Bryce Harper, the Phils were able to retain Realmuto on a five-year, $114 million deal. The Phillies did reach the 2022 World Series with Realmuto behind the plate, but he hit .167 as Philadelphia lost in six games. They returned to postseason play in the following years but lost in the NLDS in both 2023 and 2024.

2019-20. The Yankees enticed the winter’s star free agent, pitcher Gerrit Cole, with a nine-year, $324 million offer. In his first five seasons playing under that deal, Cole is 59-28 with a 5-2 postseason record, and he secured his long-awaited Cy Young trophy in 2023.

2024 was Cole’s first World Series in pinstripes. At a personal level it went well: a 0.72 ERA in two starts encompassing 13 innings. However, the Yankees eventually lost both of Cole’s starts, including the decisive Game 5 which included a historically bad series of blunders, including Cole's failure to cover first base which would have ended the inning.

2018-19: As in 2022-23, there were two prime free agents this offseason: Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Machado signed with San Diego for 10 years and $300 million, and although he has starred on an individual level — 23.4 WAR, .830 OPS in San Diego — his Padres have annually come up short in their post-season dreams. They did get to the 2022 NLCS, ultimately losing to the Phillies in five games.

Those Phillies signed Harper for $330 million covering 13 seasons. With the now-first baseman in tow, they have three postseason appearances over the last three years, but only that 2022 World Series loss to show for it. Still Harper's series-clinching home run in that 2022 NLCS remains one of baseball's most iconic moments from this decade.

2017-18.  The Cubs made the big winter free agent splash when they got Yu Darvish’s signature on a six-year, $126 million contract. Darvish was 15-14 with a 3.60 ERA in three seasons for the Cubs, including a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Cy Young vote. He made one postseason appearance in Chicago before being traded to San Diego for prospects in December of 2020.

2016-17. The Mets made franchise free agent history when they extended outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for four more seasons at $110 million.  They thought they were getting a slugger who had starred with Oakland, Boston, Detroit and who had been a key part of their 2015 World Series team. However, injuries and off-field distractions derailed Cespedes’ production. Over the four seasons covered by the extension, he played in just 127 games, and the Mets did not play in a single playoff contest.

2015-16. The Red Sox gave David Price $217 million through 2022 to pitch for them. Price was a key figure in Boston’s 2018 World Series run, going 16-7 in 30 regular season starts and winning two World Series games. But he saw limited action in 2019, opted out of the Covid 2020 season, and was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the ill-fated Mookie Betts trade.

2014-15. The Nationals’ signing of Max Scherzer — for seven years at a $210 million price tag — was the winter’s big news. He was utterly brilliant in his time in the nation's capital, winning two Cy Young awards and finishing in at least the top-five of the voting in six of his seven seasons under contract. He was also a huge factor in the team’s 2019 World Series victory over Houston, going 30 innings that postseason while posting a 2.40 ERA.

More From Call To The Pen:

manual