We've hit the point in the MLB offseason in which it's time to start counting down the days until pitchers and catchers report to camp. We are nearly a month away from the first spring training games, so it should feel as if the offseason is wrapping up.
However, that is far from the case, as there are still some big names left in both the trade and free agency market. Two of those names happen to be two premier third basemen in the game: Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado.
Bregman is still a free agent, while Arenado has frequently been tossed around in trade rumors. That poses the question: for teams looking to contend in 2025, which of these third basemen should they be in pursuit of?
Which third baseman will play better in 2025?
To tackle that question, you first of course need to take a look at the raw numbers. Despite being widely recognized as two of the best third basemen in the game, both players are actually coming off of down years compared to their career averages.
In seemingly his final season in Houston, Bregman hit 26 home runs while driving in 75 runs, along with a slash line of .260/.315/.453, which was good for a .768 OPS and a 118 wRC+ over 634 plate appearances. With 2024 being a down year offensively by Bregman's standards, he still produced 4.1 fWAR, the third year in a row he has reached the 4.0 mark (4.0 fWAR is typically the threshold for an All-Star caliber season).
On the defensive side, Bregman is still an above-average defender, posting 6 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and 6 OAA (Outs Above Average) at the hot corner, en route to his first career Gold Glove award.
Arenado's production on the other hand wasn't quite on par with Bregman's. Over 635 plate appearances, he hit 16 home runs, drove in 71, and posted a slash line of .272/.325/.394, with a .719 OPS and a 102 wRC+.
His home run total, SLG, OPS, and wRC+ were all his worst marks since his rookie year in 2013. His numbers under the hood aren't encouraging either, as his 3.2 barrel%, 31.2 hard hit%, and 86.3 MPH average exit velocity were also career lows and well below league average.
These numbers wouldn't be as much of a red flag if this wasn't coming off of another down year in 2023. While he did hit 26 home runs and slugged .459 in that season, his .779 OPS and 106 wRC+ were far from a "normal" Nolan Arenado season. Coming off back-to-back sub-par seasons heading into his age-34 campaign should raise some concern for contending teams.
On the bright side, he does remain at the top of his class defensively. His 9 OAA and FRV (Fielding Run Value) of 7 both ranked third among third basemen in 2024. While his offensive numbers might point to athletic decline, the defensive numbers tell a different story, which leads me to believe Arenado may have some juice left in the tank to put together another All-Star caliber season.
Will Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado offer better value in 2025?
How will acquiring either of these players effect a team's payroll? While Bregman is a free agent, Arenado is entering year seven of his nine-year contract worth $275 million. His contract will take him through 2027, his age-36 season. However, there is some deferred money in the deal with Arenado set to make $3 million per year from the end of his contract through the 2041 season. His former team, the Colorado Rockies are also covering $10 million of his deal, and it's also likely that the Cardinals will eat a chunk of it if they are to trade him.
In total, Arenado has $82 million still owed to him, but it's likely that whichever team acquires him will only need to commit around $60 million at most. In today's market, that's not a bad deal for a third baseman that still has the potential to put up high-quality numbers. Also, given that it seems the Cardinals' desire for trading Arenado is to shed payroll, a trade might not demand a huge haul headed back to St. Louis. The only issue for the Cardinals is Arenado's no-trade clause. There is a short list of teams Arenado has stated he would waive the clause for.
Bregman on the other hand is coming off of a five-year deal worth $100 million, and he's obviously looking to make more than that in free agency. He turned down a six-year deal worth $156M to return to the Astros earlier in the winter, making it clear that he and his agent, Scott Boras, are looking for a contract north of six years and $200 million.
The unfortunate news for Bregman is that teams seem to be taking a much more cautious approach when it comes to long-term contracts, especially for players over the age of 30. Teams have got to be looking at Nolan Arenado's recent lack of production at the plate and wondering if Bregman's mid-30s will play out the same way. A six-year deal for Bregman would take him through his age-36 campaign, similar to Arenado's.
At this point in the offseason, Bregman may not be getting his $200 million wish. My ideal contract for Bregman at this point would be a six year deal worth $180M, although as the season approaches, Bregman may have to shift his focus to a short term deal — something we've seen in the past with free agents signing late in the offseason, including last year with Boras's prized clients.
Regardless, I still believe Arenado is going to be the cheaper option for team's interested in adding one of the two third basemen.
So, of these third basemen, who's the right option? There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but it does boil down to a team's current situation.
Arenado would be a solid option for a team like the Red Sox. The Red Sox are one of the teams Arenado listed as a destination he would waive his no-trade clause for, and Boston has already expressed a desire to move Rafael Devers to first base. They would have no problem paying the remainder of his contract and Arenado would help solidify their infield defense regardless of what he would provide offensively.
Bregman, meanwhile, would be more suited for teams like the Mariners or Tigers, two clubs that need to take the next step offensively if they want to be true World Series contenders, and are also in need of making a statement signing. In my opinion, Arenado is the safer option financially, while Bregman is the better on-field option for teams looking to go all in for the foreseeable future.