The 2025 Hall of Fame ballot is stacked with a lot of worthy candidates, led by Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez, and Billy Wagner. Also on that ballot includes a second baseman who was underrated throughout his prime, Chase Utley. In his first year on the ballot, he earned 28.8% of eligible votes.
While the 28.8% figure is a good sign for a fringe Hall of Famer on his first year on the ballot, it will take some time for him to rally enough support to get inducted. Unless he gets a huge spike on this year's ballot, he almost certainly won't be a part of the 2025 Hall of Fame class.
The case for Chase Utley's induction
Utley was one of the top players in the National League from 2006-2010, being named an All-Star in all five seasons. His 28.8 wins above average (WAA) and 38.2 wins above replacement (WAR) in that window ranked second in the senior circuit to only then-Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer two years from now.
The most bWAR of infielders from ages 26-30 in the Live Ball Era:
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) December 3, 2024
Albert Pujols 43.7
Lou Gehrig 40.8
Wade Boggs 40.0
Mike Schmidt 39.9
Chase Utley 39.7pic.twitter.com/1UrQSQNZh2
Over that stretch, Baseball Reference credits him with 145 batting runs, 24 baserunning runs, and 96 fielding runs above average at second base.
Despite the strong track record, he never finished higher than seventh in the Most Valuable Player race and only took home four Silver Slugger Awards. Meanwhile, two of his teammates took home the MVP award — Ryan Howard in 2006 and Jimmy Rollins in 2007. Like Utley, Rollins is on the Hall of Fame ballot (he earned 14.3% of the vote during his third year on the ballot in 2024).
The Phillies had a juggernaut roster during Utley's prime. They made the postseason in five straight seasons from 2007-2011, including a World Series Championship in 2008 and a National League Pennant the following season. Utley was a big contributor in October during that run, hitting .262 with 10 home runs, 25 RBI, and a .902 OPS. Five of those home runs came in the 2009 World Series, where the Phillies fell to the New York Yankees in six games.
The case against Utley
Even though Utley was one of the best players from 2006-2010 in terms of WAR, he could be left out due to the lack of accolades. As mentioned above, he never had a top-five finish in the MVP, was only a six-time All-Star, and had just four Silver Slugger awards.
While he accumulated over 60 WAR on both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, much of it on the strength of his underrated baserunning and defensive value. The lack of top-level MVP finishes and Gold Gloves will probably hurt his candidacy.
When evaluating a Hall of Fame case, we have to look at a player's peak. Amongst all second basemen in league history, Utley ranked 15th in career WAR (64.5), ninth in seven-year peak WAR (49.3), 12th in the Jaffe WAR Score System (56.9), and 16th in WAR per 162 Games Played (5.4).
In only two of those four metrics does he rank above the average Hall of Famer, which may not make him a priority to induct. Given the fact he's close to the average in the other two metrics, though, they aren't disqualifying by any means.
There will also be more important candidates on the ballot who have more urgency to get votes than Utley, who is in his second year of the ballot. Ichiro is the only slam-dunk choice that should get the overwhelming majority of the votes, but each voter can vote 'yes' for up to ten players. Not every writer voting on the induction will pick ten players, however, and they're well within their rights to make that choice.
Players who could siphon votes from Utley on the ballot include Billy Wagner, who is in his tenth and final year on the ballot, and Andruw Jones, who is on his eighth. Both players are close to an induction, with Wagner only a handful of votes away and Jones getting 61.6% last year. To get inducted into the Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the voting.
Due to a lack of surefire options on the ballot other than Ichiro, Utley should see the number of votes going his way drastically increase in his second year on the ballot.