Overrated: Hunter Greene
The instability of high school pitchers’ fortunes has been well-known for decades, with a continuing trend of teams avoiding them in the draft. When the Cincinnati Reds selected Hunter Greene second overall out of high school in 2017, their acceptance of the inherent risks showed how highly regarded his talent was. He was always destined for greatness, and in 2024, he seemed to truly realize that potential.
Unfortunately, repeating last season’s outstanding campaign will require a tough battle against an inevitable regression to the mean.
On the surface, Greene appeared to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2024. His 6.2 Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) tied him with Cy Young winner Chris Sale for the best in the NL. He missed more than a month with right elbow soreness (gulp), but among pitchers with at least 150 IP, his 2.75 ERA was fourth in MLB.
So, if Baseball Reference says he was just as productive as the winner, why did he finish eighth in Cy Young award voting?
Aside from the playing time he missed, Greene’s worrisome peripheral stats are the answer. His 2.75 ERA looks like smoke and mirrors next to his 3.47 FIP and 4.19 expected FIP (xFIP). His extreme left on base rate (LOB%), home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB%), and BABIP — all of which are largely luck-based — provide more evidence that his 2024 performance may end up being a fluke.
Greene racks up consistent strikeouts, but a concerning amount of walks come with the territory. When contact is made, it’s often in the air. He was somehow able to limit long balls last year, but as a flyball pitcher at Cincinnati’s homer-happy stadium, the odds are small he can maintain that. He is still only 25 and could develop his control and/or groundball rate, but if not, this season will be a tough step back.