Overrated: Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen generated some buzz this offseason by toying around with an idea designed to sidestep roster limit rules by exploiting two-way player designations. Though he is currently the best hitting pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani, the plan was less about getting Lorenzen at-bats and more about helping potential acquiring clubs get more pitchers on the roster.
If Lorenzen pitches like his peripheral stats suggest he did last year, though, he may want to leave the door open to a true transition to hitting.
Lorenzen ended up re-signing with the Kansas City Royals on a one-year, $7 million deal. With the Royals hoping for a return to the playoffs and the two-way plan centered around creating trade value, he likely won’t be taking any at-bats in 2025 — though that could change if the Royals fall out of contention. Instead, Kansas City will be relying on him to supplement their rotation with a repeat of last year’s 3.31 ERA.
That will be tough, however, considering the vast contrast between that value and his 4.59 xERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.95 xFIP, and 5.07 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). The gap between his ERA and FIP was by far the largest in baseball among pitchers with at least 130 IP. This incredible luck came from favorable batted ball bounces (BABIP) and runners being stranded at rates he shouldn’t get used to (LOB%).
Lorenzen has historically lacked an above-average skill, struggling to tally up strikeouts and allowing too many free passes. He is not bad at limiting hard contact and preventing home runs, but he will only get so far with those mediocre abilities. Unless he makes drastic improvements to his pitch mix, Michael Lorenzen should begin oiling up his outfield glove in preparation for an anti-Joey Gallo career change.