Overrated: Trea Turner
Trea Turner signed his massive 11-year contract with the Phillies ahead of the 2023 season, and after a few months, it looked like a complete disaster. Fatefully (or coincidentally) prompted by a mid-slump standing ovation, Turner rebounded in the final two months of that season and, other than a six-week absence due to a hamstring injury, seemed to continue that success in 2024.
However, a look under the hood shows that Phillies fans might want to prep for another ovation.
Turner overperformed his expected results by a sizable margin in 2024, with a wOBA-xwOBA gap of 0.031 that was right behind Jose Ramirez’s mentioned earlier. As with Ramirez, Turner's batting average and slugging percentage were also significantly higher than their expected data counterparts. His Baseball Savant profile shows why: he simply doesn’t make the kind of hard, solid contact you’d want out of him.
To make matters worse, Turner has been chasing and whiffing at worrisome levels for three seasons now. While he has maintained an acceptable strikeout rate, he has walked less and less frequently, dropping from a 9.3% peak in 2018 to just 5.0% last season. By extension, his OBP isn’t high enough to warrant a spot near the top of a lineup, even though the Phillies are toying with making him their leadoff hitter.
He does still have his speed, but speed-focused players tend to decline quicker than others. His defense has also already taken a rough hit, as he was third-worst of all fielders by DRS last season. Philadelphia can likely still count on Trea Turner for a decent batting average and good power for a shortstop, but he’s got nine years left on his deal and those skills may not outweigh his drawbacks for much longer.