Overrated: Will Smith
As the Los Angeles Dodgers continue to build and sustain their dynasty by collecting superstars through trades and free agency signings, their blandly-named homegrown catcher is often an afterthought. He’s been an everyday player for over five years, is signed for another nine, and already has two World Series rings. If all goes according to plan, Will Smith will be a significant cornerstone of this Dodgers era.
Unfortunately, Smith’s production isn’t trending in the right direction, and the Dodgers may have to make a difficult decision a lot earlier into his 10-year, $140 million extension than they initially planned.
The former first-round pick had a hot start to his career, slashing .268/.363/.574 (batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage) in 91 games across 2019-2020, good for a 143 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). He never graded out as a superb defender, but with offensive contributions like that, he didn’t need to be. It looked like the Dodgers had another future Hall of Famer on their hands.
Smith has gradually declined every year since then, though, with a wRC+ that has steadily trickled down over the last four years: 130, 127, 118, and 111. Much of this dropoff can be attributed to a decrease in power, as his slugging percentage (SLG) has slid from .574 over his first two seasons to .456 over his last four. Meanwhile, his defense has sunk even further, having posted the second-poorest framing in MLB last year.
Don’t get me wrong. Will Smith is one of the top catchers of this era. However, he’ll be turning 30 later this month and is already on a downward trajectory. With top catching prospect Dalton Rushing knocking on the door, Smith may be forced into another position relatively soon. And if his offense keeps backsliding he may find himself a surprising odd man out, playing on a contract the Dodgers will eventually regret.